Football · Qatar Stars League · 30/10, 17:30

Prediction: Al Gharafa vs Qatar SC Doha

Team pages: Al Gharafa · Qatar SC Doha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

Al Gharafa1.91

Qatar SC Doha1.41

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Al Gharafa Draw Qatar SC Doha

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Gharafa 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLDLDD

Qatar SC Doha 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLDLDW

Head-to-head

Al Gharafa 3–1–2 Qatar SC Doha (6 last)

Qatar SC Doha2-0Al Gharafa
Qatar SC Doha3-2Al Gharafa
Al Gharafa2-1Qatar SC Doha
Al Gharafa4-2Qatar SC Doha
Qatar SC Doha1-3Al Gharafa
Al Gharafa2-2Qatar SC Doha

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Gharafa 1439 · Qatar SC Doha 1470

	Al Gharafa	Draw	Qatar SC Doha
Our model	48%	24%	27%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Gharafa: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Gharafa	Qatar SC Doha
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	2.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.75

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.85▲	Pinn 1.89
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.30 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.73 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
10:01 +3’	1.83	3.75	3.30
10:48 +16’	1.85▲	3.75	3.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:48 +16’	1.89	3.59	3.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Gharafa 3–1–2 Qatar SC Doha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/03/26 Qatar Stars League	Qatar SC Doha	2-0 HT 1-0	Al Gharafa
19/01/26 Qatar Stars Cup	Qatar SC Doha	3-2 HT 3-0	Al Gharafa
07/11/25 Qatar Stars League	Al Gharafa	2-1 HT 0-1	Qatar SC Doha
22/02/25 Qatar Stars League	Al Gharafa	4-2 HT 2-1	Qatar SC Doha
22/09/24 Qatar Stars League	Qatar SC Doha	1-3 HT 1-2	Al Gharafa
19/05/24 Qatar Emir Cup	Al Gharafa	2-2 HT 0-0	Qatar SC Doha

Standings · Qatar Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al-Rayyan SC	7	5	2	0	16	3	17
2	Al Sadd	7	5	0	2	27	13	15
3	Al Duhail	7	4	3	0	15	6	15
4	Al-Arabi Doha	7	3	3	1	16	8	12
5	Al-Wakrah SC	7	3	2	2	13	13	11
6	Al-Shamal SC	7	2	3	2	12	13	9
7	Al-Ahli Doha	7	2	2	3	12	14	8
8	Al-Shahaniya SC	7	2	1	4	8	19	7
9	Lusail	7	1	3	3	8	8	6
10	Al Gharafa	7	1	3	3	8	13	6
11	Qatar SC Doha	7	1	3	3	9	16	6
12	Al Sailiya SC	7	0	1	6	8	26	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Gharafa	Qatar SC Doha
Al-Ahli Doha	2-2 D	0-1 L
Al-Rayyan SC	0-0 D	0-3 L
Al-Wakrah SC	2-3 L	2-2 D
Al Sadd	1-4 L	2-6 L
Al-Shamal SC	1-3 L	3-2 W
Al Duhail	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Al Gharafa (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Gharafa

LDDWLLDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Al-Ahli Doha Qatar Stars League	2-0	2-2	6	1	D
18/10	Al-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	9	D
08/10	Al-Wakrah SC Qatar Stars League	1-1	2-3	9	4	L
11/09	Lusail Qatar Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
05/09	Al Sadd Qatar Stars League	0-2	1-4	6	3	L
27/08	Al-Shamal SC Qatar Stars League	0-0	1-3	7	5	L
21/08	Al-Shahaniya SC Qatar Stars League	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
27/04	Al-Shahaniya SC Qatar Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
08/04	Al-Wakrah SC Qatar Stars League	1-1	3-3	7	3	D
04/04	Al Duhail Qatar Stars League	2-2	2-3	1	5	L

Qatar SC Doha

DLLDLLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	Al-Shamal SC Qatar Stars League	1-0	3-2	1	3	W
17/10	Al Sailiya SC Qatar Stars League	1-0	2-2	7	4	D
09/10	Al-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	1	L
12/09	Al-Arabi Doha Qatar Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	9	D
03/09	Al-Ahli Doha Qatar Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
28/08	Al Sadd Qatar Stars League	0-3	2-6	3	4	L
20/08	Al-Wakrah SC Qatar Stars League	1-1	2-2	3	6	D
27/04	Al Duhail Qatar Stars League	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
13/04	Al-Shamal SC Qatar Stars League	2-0	0-3	1	9	L
08/04	Al-Arabi Doha Qatar Stars League	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Gharafa vs Qatar SC Doha?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Gharafa win (48%). Probabilities: Al Gharafa 48%, draw 24%, Qatar SC Doha 28%.

How many goals are expected in Al Gharafa vs Qatar SC Doha?

The model expects 3.33 goals (Al Gharafa 1.91 · Qatar SC Doha 1.41), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Gharafa vs Qatar SC Doha?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.