Football · Chile Segunda · 16/08, 21:00
Prediction: General Velásquez vs Provincial Ovalle
Team pages: General Velásquez · Provincial Ovalle
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
General Velásquez1.51
Provincial Ovalle0.95
1X2
General Velásquez
Draw
Provincial Ovalle
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
General Velásquez
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Provincial Ovalle
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
General Velásquez
1–4
Provincial Ovalle
(5 last)
- Provincial Ovalle2-0General Velásquez
- General Velásquez1-2Provincial Ovalle
- Provincial Ovalle2-0General Velásquez
- General Velásquez2-0Provincial Ovalle
- General Velásquez0-1Provincial Ovalle
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · General Velásquez 1481 · Provincial Ovalle 1438
| General Velásquez | Draw | Provincial Ovalle | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 28% | 22% |
| Market | 50% | 27% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours General Velásquez (rating 1481 vs 1438).
- H2H favours Provincial Ovalle: 4-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| General Velásquez | Provincial Ovalle | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.2 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 6 | 1.4 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.4 / 1 | 4.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · General Velásquez 1–0–4 Provincial Ovalle
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/25 Chile Segunda | Provincial Ovalle | 2-0 HT 1-0 | General Velásquez |
| 06/04/25 Chile Segunda | General Velásquez | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 27/08/24 Chile Segunda | Provincial Ovalle | 2-0 HT 1-0 | General Velásquez |
| 14/04/24 Chile Segunda | General Velásquez | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Provincial Ovalle |
| 04/06/17 Chile Tercera | General Velásquez | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Provincial Ovalle |
Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Relegation Round
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lota Schwager | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | CD Rengo Unido | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Real Juventud San Joaquin | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | Santiago Morning | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | Provincial Ovalle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | AC Colina | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 7 | General Velásquez | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
General Velásquez
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Lota Schwager Chile Segunda |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 01/08 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 26/07 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 10 | D |
| 12/07 | CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | Lota Schwager Chile Segunda |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | Santiago Morning Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 31/05 | Colchagua CD Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Deportes Linares Chile Segunda |
2-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 09/05 | CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 9 | L |
Provincial Ovalle
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 26/06 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
2-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 21/06 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/06 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 30/05 | Concon National Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 25/05 | Brujas de Salamanca Chile Segunda |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | AC Colina Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 27/04 | Santiago City Chile Segunda |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Real Juventud San Joaquin Chile Segunda |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/04 | CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda |
2-0 | 2-4 | 4 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in General Velásquez vs Provincial Ovalle?
According to our model, the most likely result is a General Velásquez win (50%). Probabilities: General Velásquez 50%, draw 28%, Provincial Ovalle 23%.
How many goals are expected in General Velásquez vs Provincial Ovalle?
The model expects 2.46 goals (General Velásquez 1.51 · Provincial Ovalle 0.95), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in General Velásquez vs Provincial Ovalle?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.