Football · Tanzania Premier League · 13/10, 18:00

Prediction: Simba Sports Club vs Mashujaa FC

Team pages: Simba Sports Club · Mashujaa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Simba Sports Club2.11

Mashujaa FC0.36

1X2

79% 16% 5%

Simba Sports Club Draw Mashujaa FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 57%

Most likely score

2-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Simba Sports Club 10-0-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWW

Mashujaa FC 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLWLWW

Head-to-head

Simba Sports Club 5–1–0 Mashujaa FC (6 last)

Mashujaa FC0-3Simba Sports Club
Simba Sports Club2-0Mashujaa FC
Simba Sports Club2-1Mashujaa FC
Mashujaa FC0-1Simba Sports Club
Mashujaa FC1-1Simba Sports Club
Simba Sports Club2-0Mashujaa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Simba Sports Club 1648 · Mashujaa FC 1501

	Simba Sports Club	Draw	Mashujaa FC
Our model	78%	18%	5%
Market	79%	15%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Simba Sports Club (rating 1648 vs 1501).
H2H favours Simba Sports Club: 5-1-0.
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Simba Sports Club	Mashujaa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.7	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.4	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.14

X6.25

215.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.90

2 (+2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.20 → 1.14▼	Bet365 1.14
X	5.50 → 6.25▲	Bet365 6.25
2	11.00 → 15.00▲	Bet365 15.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:45 +21’	1.20	5.50	11.00
23:50 +13’	1.14▼	6.25▲	15.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Simba Sports Club 5–1–0 Mashujaa FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Tanzania Premier League	Mashujaa FC	0-3 HT 0-1	Simba Sports Club
29/01/26 Tanzania Premier League	Simba Sports Club	2-0 HT 1-0	Mashujaa FC
02/05/25 Tanzania Premier League	Simba Sports Club	2-1 HT 0-1	Mashujaa FC
01/11/24 Tanzania Premier League	Mashujaa FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Simba Sports Club
09/04/24 Tanzania Cup	Mashujaa FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Simba Sports Club
15/03/24 Tanzania Premier League	Simba Sports Club	2-0 HT 0-0	Mashujaa FC

Standings · Tanzania Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Simba Sports Club	7	7	0	0	13	3	21
2	Young Africans	7	6	0	1	17	4	18
3	Azam FC	8	5	2	1	13	7	17
4	Mashujaa FC	7	4	0	3	8	7	12
5	Singida Black Stars	8	3	2	3	14	11	11
6	Dodoma Jiji FC	7	3	2	2	5	5	11
7	Polisi Tanzania FC	7	3	1	3	10	9	10
8	Mbeya City	7	3	1	3	7	7	10
9	JKT Tanzania	7	3	1	3	9	11	10
10	Coastal Union	8	3	1	4	7	11	10
11	Namungo FC	8	3	0	5	7	11	9
12	Geita Gold	7	2	1	4	9	12	7
13	TRA United	7	1	3	3	6	7	6
14	Kagera Sugar	7	1	2	4	8	15	5
15	Pamba SC	7	1	1	5	8	13	4
16	Singida Fountain Gate FC	7	1	1	5	3	11	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Simba Sports Club	Mashujaa FC
Coastal Union	1-0 W	1-0 W
Singida Black Stars	2-1 W	2-1 W
Kagera Sugar	2-0 W	2-1 W
KMC FC	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Simba Sports Club

WWWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Young Africans Tanzania Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
16/09	Azam FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
31/08	Geita Gold Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	12	3	W
27/08	Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-0	15	3	W
22/08	Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
19/08	Pamba SC Tanzania Premier League	2-0	2-1	5	6	W
16/08	Kagera Sugar Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
30/06	KMC FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
27/06	Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/06	Mtibwa Sugar Tanzania Premier League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W

Mashujaa FC

WWLWLLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	Polisi Tanzania FC Tanzania Premier League	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
09/09	Singida Black Stars Tanzania Premier League	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
04/09	Dodoma Jiji FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
27/08	Kagera Sugar Tanzania Premier League	0-1	2-1	10	4	W
23/08	Mbeya City Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-2	5	2	L
18/08	Singida Fountain Gate FC Tanzania Premier League	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
15/08	Coastal Union Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
30/06	Tanzania Prisons Tanzania Premier League	0-0	0-1	0	0	L
27/06	KMC FC Tanzania Premier League	2-0	2-0	–	–	W
24/06	Singida Fountain Gate FC Tanzania Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Simba Sports Club vs Mashujaa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Simba Sports Club win (79%). Probabilities: Simba Sports Club 79%, draw 16%, Mashujaa FC 5%.

How many goals are expected in Simba Sports Club vs Mashujaa FC?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Simba Sports Club 2.11 · Mashujaa FC 0.36), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Simba Sports Club vs Mashujaa FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.