Prediction: Tai Po vs Kowloon City
Team pages: Tai Po · Kowloon City
- Tai Po3-2Kowloon City
- Kowloon City0-2Tai Po
- Kowloon City1-3Tai Po
- Kowloon City2-5Tai Po
- Tai Po5-1Kowloon City
| Tai Po | Draw | Kowloon City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 20% | 17% |
| Market | 64% | 19% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tai Po (rating 1573 vs 1482).
- H2H favours Tai Po: 5-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tai Po | Kowloon City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.3 | 1.3 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.3 | 5.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tai Po 5–0–0 Kowloon City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 Hong Kong Premier League | Tai Po | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Kowloon City |
| 21/09/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Kowloon City | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Tai Po |
| 06/04/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Kowloon City | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Tai Po |
| 09/03/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Kowloon City | 2-5 HT 1-3 | Tai Po |
| 01/09/24 Hong Kong Premier League | Tai Po | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Kowloon City |
Standings · Hong Kong Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee Man FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | North District | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Kitchee | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Tai Po | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 5 | Southern District | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Eastern District | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 7 | Eastern SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 8 | Shatin | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 9 | HK Rangers FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 3 |
| 10 | Kowloon City | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 11 | Hong Kong FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tai Po | Kowloon City |
|---|---|---|
| Hong Kong FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| HK Rangers FC | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Eastern SC | 4-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Lee Man FC | 3-2 W | 0-3 L |
| Eastern District | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Tai Po (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tai Po
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
Kowloon City
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Shatin Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 10 | L |
| 23/08 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 21/03 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tai Po vs Kowloon City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tai Po win (64%). Probabilities: Tai Po 64%, draw 19%, Kowloon City 17%.
How many goals are expected in Tai Po vs Kowloon City?
The model expects 3.68 goals (Tai Po 2.46 · Kowloon City 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Tai Po vs Kowloon City?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.