Football · Hong Kong Premier League · 11/10, 10:00
Prediction: Southern District vs Eastern District
Team pages: Southern District · Eastern District
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
Southern District1.5
Eastern District1.49
1X2
Southern District
Draw
Eastern District
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Southern District
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Eastern District
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Southern District
2–2–1
Eastern District
(5 last)
- Southern District2-1Eastern District
- Southern District2-2Eastern District
- Eastern District0-1Southern District
- Southern District1-1Eastern District
- Southern District1-4Eastern District
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Southern District 1505 · Eastern District 1464
| Southern District | Draw | Eastern District | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market | 38% | 25% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Southern District (rating 1505 vs 1464).
- H2H favours Southern District: 2-2-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Southern District | Eastern District | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/10/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.7 | 1.7 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.6 | 4.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Southern District 2–2–1 Eastern District
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/26 Hong Kong Senior Shield | Southern District | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Eastern District |
| 09/05/26 Hong Kong Premier League | Southern District | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Eastern District |
| 13/12/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Eastern District | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Southern District |
| 25/10/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Southern District | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Eastern District |
| 04/10/25 Hong Kong Cup | Southern District | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Eastern District |
Standings · Hong Kong Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee Man FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | North District | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Kitchee | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Tai Po | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 5 | Southern District | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Eastern District | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 7 | Eastern SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 8 | Shatin | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 9 | HK Rangers FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 3 |
| 10 | Kowloon City | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 11 | Hong Kong FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Southern District | Eastern District |
|---|---|---|
| Kitchee | 1-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Kowloon City | 2-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Hong Kong FC | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| HK Rangers FC | 1-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Tai Po | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Southern District (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Southern District
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 10 | W |
| 22/08 | Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 15 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 19/04 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 15/03 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 10 | L |
Eastern District
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Hong Kong FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 14/03 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Southern District vs Eastern District?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Southern District win (37%). Probabilities: Southern District 37%, draw 26%, Eastern District 37%.
How many goals are expected in Southern District vs Eastern District?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Southern District 1.5 · Eastern District 1.49), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Southern District vs Eastern District?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.