Football · Hong Kong Premier League · 10/10, 10:00
Prediction: Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC
Team pages: Kitchee · Hong Kong FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.1Total
Kitchee3.05
Hong Kong FC1.05
1X2
Kitchee
Draw
Hong Kong FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Kitchee
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Hong Kong FC
3-1-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Kitchee
6–0
Hong Kong FC
(6 last)
- Kitchee5-2Hong Kong FC
- Hong Kong FC1-2Kitchee
- Kitchee3-1Hong Kong FC
- Hong Kong FC1-3Kitchee
- Kitchee3-1Hong Kong FC
- Kitchee4-0Hong Kong FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kitchee 1535 · Hong Kong FC 1448
| Kitchee | Draw | Hong Kong FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 83% | 10% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.1 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kitchee (rating 1535 vs 1448).
- H2H favours Kitchee: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Kitchee | Hong Kong FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 6.9 | 1.6 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kitchee 6–0–0 Hong Kong FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Hong Kong Premier League | Kitchee | 5-2 HT 3-1 | Hong Kong FC |
| 11/01/26 Hong Kong Premier League | Hong Kong FC | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Kitchee |
| 26/04/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Kitchee | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Hong Kong FC |
| 16/02/25 Hong Kong Premier League | Hong Kong FC | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Kitchee |
| 08/12/24 Hong Kong Sapling Cup | Kitchee | 3-1 HT 3-1 | Hong Kong FC |
| 05/10/24 Hong Kong Premier League | Kitchee | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Hong Kong FC |
Standings · Hong Kong Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lee Man FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 12 |
| 2 | North District | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 3 | Kitchee | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Tai Po | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| 5 | Southern District | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| 6 | Eastern District | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 7 | Eastern SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 3 |
| 8 | Shatin | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| 9 | HK Rangers FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 3 |
| 10 | Kowloon City | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 11 | Hong Kong FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Kitchee | Hong Kong FC |
|---|---|---|
| Southern District | 3-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Eastern District | 4-1 W | 2-1 W |
| HK Rangers FC | 3-2 W | 2-1 W |
| Eastern SC | 4-4 D | 0-5 L |
| Tai Po | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Lee Man FC | 1-4 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Kitchee (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kitchee
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 06/09 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
2-3 | 4-4 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | North District Hong Kong Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 12/04 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
Hong Kong FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Tai Po Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Kowloon City Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | HK Rangers FC Hong Kong Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Southern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Eastern District Hong Kong Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Eastern SC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 15/03 | Lee Man FC Hong Kong Premier League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 01/03 | Kitchee Hong Kong Premier League |
1-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Kitchee win (80%). Probabilities: Kitchee 80%, draw 12%, Hong Kong FC 8%.
How many goals are expected in Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC?
The model expects 4.1 goals (Kitchee 3.05 · Hong Kong FC 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Kitchee vs Hong Kong FC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.