Football · AFC Challenge League · 11/08, 19:00
Prediction: Al Ittihad Aleppo vs Bangladesh Police Club
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.59Total
Al Ittihad Aleppo1.74
Bangladesh Police Club0.84
1X2
Al Ittihad Aleppo
Draw
Bangladesh Police Club
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Al Ittihad Aleppo
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Bangladesh Police Club
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Al Ittihad Aleppo 1618 · Bangladesh Police Club 1507
| Al Ittihad Aleppo | Draw | Bangladesh Police Club | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 26% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Ittihad Aleppo (rating 1618 vs 1507).
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Al Ittihad Aleppo | Bangladesh Police Club | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4 / 7.6 | 1.9 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.6 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Al Ittihad Aleppo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Al-Jaish Damascus Syria Division 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | Jableh Syria Division 1 |
1-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/06 | Hutteen Syria Division 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Al Wahda Damascus Syria Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | Al Horiyah Syria Division 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Al Shola Syria Division 1 |
1-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Omayya Syria Division 1 |
0-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 19/05 | Tishreen Syria Division 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 15/05 | Al-Shorta Damascus Syria Division 1 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 08/05 | Al Karamah Syria Division 1 |
1-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
Bangladesh Police Club
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Rahmatgonj MFS Bangladesh Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Arambagh KS Bangladesh Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/05 | Bashundhara Kings Bangladesh Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 01/05 | PWD Sports Club Bangladesh Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Fakirapool Young Men's Club Bangladesh Premier League |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/04 | Bashundhara Kings Bangladesh Federation Cup |
0-1 | 1-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/04 | Dhaka Abahani Bangladesh Premier League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 11/04 | Fortis FC Bangladesh Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 07/04 | Fortis FC Bangladesh Federation Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 13/03 | Mohammedan Dhaka Bangladesh Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Al Ittihad Aleppo vs Bangladesh Police Club?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Ittihad Aleppo win (58%). Probabilities: Al Ittihad Aleppo 58%, draw 25%, Bangladesh Police Club 17%.
How many goals are expected in Al Ittihad Aleppo vs Bangladesh Police Club?
The model expects 2.59 goals (Al Ittihad Aleppo 1.74 · Bangladesh Police Club 0.84), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Al Ittihad Aleppo vs Bangladesh Police Club?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.