Football · Cyprus Division 2 · 12/09, 18:00

Prediction: Agia Napa vs Asil Lysis

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Agia Napa1.63

Asil Lysis1.55

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Agia Napa Draw Asil Lysis

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Agia Napa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLDLWW

Asil Lysis 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLDLWL

Head-to-head

Agia Napa 1–3–2 Asil Lysis (6 last)

Agia Napa5-5Asil Lysis
Asil Lysis2-3Agia Napa
Asil Lysis1-1Agia Napa
Agia Napa1-1Asil Lysis
Asil Lysis3-2Agia Napa
Agia Napa1-2Asil Lysis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Agia Napa 1470 · Asil Lysis 1412

	Agia Napa	Draw	Asil Lysis
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Agia Napa (rating 1470 vs 1412).
H2H favours Asil Lysis: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Agia Napa	Asil Lysis
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	1.2 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.5	0.5 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	0.8 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 1.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 11:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
X	3.20 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:33 +6’	2.38	3.20	2.63
08:56 +8’	4.00▲	3.40▲	1.73▼
11:00 +19’	4.50▲	3.50▲	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Agia Napa 1–3–2 Asil Lysis

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 Cyprus Division 2	Agia Napa	5-5 HT 2-3	Asil Lysis
08/02/26 Cyprus Division 2	Asil Lysis	2-3 HT 2-1	Agia Napa
10/01/26 Cyprus Division 2	Asil Lysis	1-1 HT 0-1	Agia Napa
11/01/25 Cyprus Division 2	Agia Napa	1-1 HT 1-1	Asil Lysis
20/04/24 Cyprus Division 2	Asil Lysis	3-2 HT 2-1	Agia Napa
24/02/24 Cyprus Division 2	Agia Napa	1-2 HT 1-1	Asil Lysis

Standings · Cyprus Division 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ermis Aradippou	1	1	0	2	0	3
2	AEP Polemidion	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Anagennisi FC Deryneia	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Agia Napa	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	APEA Akrotiriou	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Asil Lysis	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Halkanoras Idaliou	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Digenis Morphou	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Doxa Katokopias	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Enosis Paralimni	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Ethnikos Achnas	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Iraklis Yerolakkou	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	MEAP Nisou	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	PAEEK	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Spartakos Kitiou	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Akritas Chlorakas	1	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Agia Napa	Asil Lysis
Doxa Katokopias	3-0 W	0-1 L
PAEEK	6-3 W	1-3 L
Nea Salamis Famagusta	0-3 L	1-4 L
APK Karmotissa	0-3 L	2-6 L
MEAP Nisou	0-2 L	2-1 W
Omonia 29is Maiou	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Agia Napa (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Agia Napa

LDLLLLDLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	Doxa Katokopias Cyprus Division 2	0-0	3-0	10	0	W
19/04	PAEEK Cyprus Division 2	3-3	6-3	3	8	W
04/04	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 2	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
21/03	Asil Lysis Cyprus Division 2	2-3	5-5	–	–	D
18/03	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 2	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
14/03	MEAP Nisou Cyprus Division 2	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
06/03	Omonia 29is Maiou Cyprus Division 2	0-2	0-2	1	3	L
28/02	Doxa Katokopias Cyprus Division 2	0-0	1-2	8	5	L
21/02	PAEEK Cyprus Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
14/02	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	1	L

Asil Lysis

LDLLLLDLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/04	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 2	0-3	1-4	–	–	L
17/04	MEAP Nisou Cyprus Division 2	1-1	2-1	4	3	W
04/04	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 2	0-2	2-6	–	–	L
21/03	Agia Napa Cyprus Division 2	3-2	5-5	–	–	D
18/03	Omonia 29is Maiou Cyprus Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
13/03	Doxa Katokopias Cyprus Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
08/03	PAEEK Cyprus Division 2	0-3	1-3	4	6	L
28/02	Nea Salamis Famagusta Cyprus Division 2	1-2	1-2	2	3	L
21/02	MEAP Nisou Cyprus Division 2	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
13/02	APK Karmotissa Cyprus Division 2	0-1	0-5	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Agia Napa vs Asil Lysis?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Agia Napa win (38%). Probabilities: Agia Napa 38%, draw 27%, Asil Lysis 35%.

How many goals are expected in Agia Napa vs Asil Lysis?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Agia Napa 1.63 · Asil Lysis 1.55), with a 60% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Agia Napa vs Asil Lysis?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.