Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 05/09, 19:45

Prediction: Campo Grande AC vs Carapebus/Campos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.83Total

Campo Grande AC1.31

Carapebus/Campos0.52

1X2

56% 29% 15%

Campo Grande AC Draw Carapebus/Campos

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

1-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

Campo Grande AC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDDWDLLW

Carapebus/Campos 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLDLWDL

Head-to-head

Campo Grande AC 3–3 Carapebus/Campos (6 last)

Campo Grande AC0-1Carapebus/Campos
Campo Grande AC1-0Carapebus/Campos
Carapebus/Campos1-3Campo Grande AC
Campo Grande AC2-0Carapebus/Campos
Carapebus/Campos5-2Campo Grande AC
Carapebus/Campos1-0Campo Grande AC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Campo Grande AC 1512 · Carapebus/Campos 1458

	Campo Grande AC	Draw	Carapebus/Campos
Our model	55%	31%	14%
Market	57%	27%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 1.83 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Campo Grande AC (rating 1512 vs 1458).
Cards-heavy: 13.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Campo Grande AC	Carapebus/Campos
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	0/78/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7.1 / 0.1	6.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.30

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:46 +7’	1.57	3.30	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Campo Grande AC 3–0–3 Carapebus/Campos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/11/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Campo Grande AC	0-1 HT 0-0	Carapebus/Campos
24/11/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	Campo Grande AC	1-0 HT 0-0	Carapebus/Campos
20/11/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	Carapebus/Campos	1-3 HT 1-1	Campo Grande AC
31/10/24 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	Campo Grande AC	2-0 HT 1-0	Carapebus/Campos
05/11/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	Carapebus/Campos	5-2 HT 3-1	Campo Grande AC
23/10/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	Carapebus/Campos	1-0 HT 0-0	Campo Grande AC

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Carapebus/Campos	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Artsul Futebol Clube	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Audax Rio	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Campo Grande AC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Duque de Caxias FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nova Cidade	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Goytacaz	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Macae Esporte FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Niteroiense	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Petropolis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sao Cristovao RJ	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Serrano	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Campo Grande AC	Carapebus/Campos
Petropolis	1-0 W	0-3 L
Nova Cidade	0-1 L	0-2 L
Niteroiense	1-1 D	2-0 W
Paduano EC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Duque de Caxias FC	0-0 D	0-2 L
Sao Cristovao RJ	1-1 D	0-2 L
Bonsucesso FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Artsul Futebol Clube	2-1 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Campo Grande AC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Campo Grande AC

WDDDDWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
05/11	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
01/11	Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
24/10	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
18/10	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
11/10	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	1-1	6	9	D
04/10	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	6	11	D
27/09	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-0	1-1	2	10	D
20/09	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
13/09	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	2-0	2-1	2	5	W

Carapebus/Campos

DWLLLDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
05/11	Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-1	1-1	3	9	D
01/11	Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
25/10	Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	1-2	1-3	4	9	L
18/10	Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/10	Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-1	0-3	2	5	L
04/10	Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-2	4	6	L
27/09	Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	–	0-2	–	–	L
20/09	Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
13/09	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Campo Grande AC vs Carapebus/Campos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Campo Grande AC win (56%). Probabilities: Campo Grande AC 56%, draw 29%, Carapebus/Campos 15%.

How many goals are expected in Campo Grande AC vs Carapebus/Campos?

The model expects 1.83 goals (Campo Grande AC 1.31 · Carapebus/Campos 0.52), with a 57% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Campo Grande AC vs Carapebus/Campos?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.