Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B · 05/09, 19:45
Prediction: Duque de Caxias FC vs Nova Cidade
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.7Total
Duque de Caxias FC1.02
Nova Cidade0.68
1X2
Duque de Caxias FC
Draw
Nova Cidade
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0 20%
Recent form · 10 last
Duque de Caxias FC
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Nova Cidade
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Duque de Caxias FC
2–3–1
Nova Cidade
(6 last)
- Duque de Caxias FC2-2Nova Cidade
- Duque de Caxias FC2-0Nova Cidade
- Nova Cidade0-0Duque de Caxias FC
- Nova Cidade2-2Duque de Caxias FC
- Duque de Caxias FC1-0Nova Cidade
- Nova Cidade1-0Duque de Caxias FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Duque de Caxias FC 1484 · Nova Cidade 1525
| Duque de Caxias FC | Draw | Nova Cidade | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 36% | 23% |
| Market | 45% | 30% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.7 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nova Cidade (rating 1484 vs 1525).
- H2H favours Duque de Caxias FC: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 14.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Duque de Caxias FC | Nova Cidade | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 11/89/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 1.3 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 7.9 / 0.1 | 6.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Duque de Caxias FC 2–3–1 Nova Cidade
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Duque de Caxias FC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Nova Cidade |
| 09/09/23 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Duque de Caxias FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Nova Cidade |
| 08/10/22 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Nova Cidade | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Duque de Caxias FC |
| 17/11/21 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Nova Cidade | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Duque de Caxias FC |
| 03/10/20 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Duque de Caxias FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Nova Cidade |
| 11/09/19 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B | Nova Cidade | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Duque de Caxias FC |
Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carapebus/Campos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Artsul Futebol Clube | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Audax Rio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Campo Grande AC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Duque de Caxias FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nova Cidade | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Goytacaz | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Macae Esporte FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Niteroiense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Petropolis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sao Cristovao RJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Serrano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Duque de Caxias FC | Nova Cidade |
|---|---|---|
| Bonsucesso FC | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Carapebus/Campos | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Niteroiense | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Friburguense | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Sao Cristovao RJ | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Campo Grande AC | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Nova Cidade (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Duque de Caxias FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 15/11 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 08/11 | Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 05/11 | Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 01/11 | Nova Cidade Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 25/10 | Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 18/10 | Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/10 | Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 04/10 | Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 11 | D |
| 27/09 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 9 | L |
Nova Cidade
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 05/11 | Campo Grande AC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 01/11 | Duque de Caxias FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 25/10 | Bonsucesso FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | Artsul Futebol Clube Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 11/10 | Serrano Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/10 | Petropolis Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/09 | Carapebus/Campos Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 20/09 | Sao Cristovao RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 13/09 | Niteroiense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Duque de Caxias FC vs Nova Cidade?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Duque de Caxias FC win (43%). Probabilities: Duque de Caxias FC 43%, draw 33%, Nova Cidade 24%.
How many goals are expected in Duque de Caxias FC vs Nova Cidade?
The model expects 1.7 goals (Duque de Caxias FC 1.02 · Nova Cidade 0.68), with a 58% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Duque de Caxias FC vs Nova Cidade?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.