Football · South Africa Premier · 13/10, 19:30

Prediction: Richards Bay FC vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Team pages: Richards Bay FC · Mamelodi Sundowns

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Richards Bay FC0.86

Mamelodi Sundowns2.35

1X2

12% 18% 70%

Richards Bay FC Draw Mamelodi Sundowns

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Richards Bay FC 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DDLLDDDLLL

Mamelodi Sundowns 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Richards Bay FC 0–1–5 Mamelodi Sundowns (6 last)

Richards Bay FC0-0Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns4-1Richards Bay FC
Mamelodi Sundowns4-0Richards Bay FC
Mamelodi Sundowns3-0Richards Bay FC
Richards Bay FC0-2Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns1-0Richards Bay FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Richards Bay FC 1433 · Mamelodi Sundowns 1610

	Richards Bay FC	Draw	Mamelodi Sundowns
Our model	11%	19%	70%
Market	12%	18%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mamelodi Sundowns (rating 1433 vs 1610).
H2H favours Mamelodi Sundowns: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Richards Bay FC	Mamelodi Sundowns
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.9	2.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

17.50

X5.00

21.27

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.50 → 7.50▲	Pinn 10.42 ★
X	4.33 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	1.36 → 1.27▼	Pinn 1.30

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
13:59 +7’	6.50	4.33	1.36
15:03 +3’	8.00▲	5.00▲	1.27▼
16:01 +7’	7.50▼	5.00	1.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:22 +44’	10.42	4.69	1.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 3 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Richards Bay FC 0–1–5 Mamelodi Sundowns

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 South Africa Premier	Richards Bay FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Mamelodi Sundowns
27/09/25 South Africa Premier	Mamelodi Sundowns	4-1 HT 3-1	Richards Bay FC
03/08/25 South Africa Supa 8 Cup	Mamelodi Sundowns	4-0 HT 2-0	Richards Bay FC
30/04/25 South Africa Premier	Mamelodi Sundowns	3-0 HT 2-0	Richards Bay FC
28/12/24 South Africa Premier	Richards Bay FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Mamelodi Sundowns
02/04/24 South Africa Premier	Mamelodi Sundowns	1-0 HT 0-0	Richards Bay FC

Standings · South Africa Premier

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Mamelodi Sundowns	8	6	2	0	19	7	20
2	Orlando Pirates	7	6	1	0	16	1	19
3	Amazulu	7	5	1	1	10	7	16
4	Kaizer Chiefs	7	3	4	0	12	7	13
5	Milford FC	8	3	3	2	9	7	12
6	Sekhukhune United FC	7	3	2	2	7	7	11
7	Stellenbosch FC	7	2	3	2	8	7	9
8	Golden Arrows	7	1	5	1	3	3	8
9	Chippa United	7	1	5	1	4	6	8
10	Durban City	7	1	4	2	4	5	7
11	Polokwane City	7	1	4	2	8	10	7
12	TS Galaxy	7	1	3	3	7	9	6
13	Kruger United	7	1	1	5	3	12	4
14	Richards Bay FC	7	0	3	4	9	16	3
15	Siwelele FC	7	0	3	4	6	13	3
16	Marumo Gallants	7	0	2	5	5	13	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Richards Bay FC	Mamelodi Sundowns
Milford FC	1-5 L	2-0 W
Amazulu	1-2 L	5-2 W
Kaizer Chiefs	2-2 D	1-1 D
Chippa United	1-1 D	1-1 D
Marumo Gallants	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Mamelodi Sundowns (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Richards Bay FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	0-1	2-3	9	0	L
13/09	Milford FC South Africa Premier	0-2	1-5	6	2	L
04/09	Amazulu South Africa Premier	0-0	1-2	7	3	L
26/08	Kaizer Chiefs South Africa Premier	2-1	2-2	3	5	D
15/08	Durban City South Africa Premier	1-0	1-1	4	0	D
11/08	Chippa United South Africa Premier	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
02/08	Polokwane City South Africa Premier	0-1	1-2	12	0	L
23/05	Magesi FC South Africa Premier	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
16/05	Sekhukhune United FC South Africa Premier	0-0	1-1	7	7	D
09/05	Marumo Gallants South Africa Premier	1-0	1-1	5	1	D

Mamelodi Sundowns

WLWDWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Chippa United South Africa Premier	0-0	1-1	7	2	D
09/09	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	0-0	3-0	10	2	W
06/09	Golden Arrows South Africa Premier	1-0	2-1	1	2	W
02/09	Milford FC South Africa Premier	1-0	2-0	1	5	W
26/08	Amazulu South Africa Premier	2-0	5-2	5	4	W
19/08	Marumo Gallants South Africa Premier	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
15/08	Kaizer Chiefs South Africa Premier	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
11/08	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	1-1	3-2	6	3	W
12/05	TS Galaxy South Africa Premier	2-2	2-3	8	5	L
09/05	Siwelele FC South Africa Premier	5-1	7-4	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Richards Bay FC vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mamelodi Sundowns win (70%). Probabilities: Richards Bay FC 12%, draw 18%, Mamelodi Sundowns 70%.

How many goals are expected in Richards Bay FC vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Richards Bay FC 0.86 · Mamelodi Sundowns 2.35), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Richards Bay FC vs Mamelodi Sundowns?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.