Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2 · 05/10, 20:00

Prediction: Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ

Team pages: Serra Macaense · Santa Cruz RJ

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Serra Macaense1.27

Santa Cruz RJ1.17

1X2

38% 28% 33%

Serra Macaense Draw Santa Cruz RJ

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Serra Macaense 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLDLWW

Santa Cruz RJ 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDWLWWWL

Head-to-head

Serra Macaense 0–1–0 Santa Cruz RJ (1 last)

Santa Cruz RJ0-0Serra Macaense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Serra Macaense 1517 · Santa Cruz RJ 1509

	Serra Macaense	Draw	Santa Cruz RJ
Our model	37%	30%	33%
Market	39%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 12.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Serra Macaense	Santa Cruz RJ
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	56/33/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.4	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.9 / 0.7	5.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.30

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:45 +8’	2.30	3.30	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Serra Macaense 0–1–0 Santa Cruz RJ

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/10/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	Santa Cruz RJ	0-0 HT 0-0	Serra Macaense

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Friburguense	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
2	Cardoso Moreira	6	4	0	2	9	5	12
2	Santa Cruz RJ	6	4	0	2	9	5	12
4	Paduano EC	6	3	2	1	9	5	11
5	Serra Macaense	6	3	1	2	11	8	10
6	7 de Abril	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
7	SE Belford Roxo	6	2	3	1	12	6	9
8	FC Rio de Janeiro	6	2	1	3	7	7	7
9	Campos RJ	6	1	3	2	8	10	6
10	Barra Mansa	6	1	3	2	6	10	6
11	Buzios	6	1	0	5	4	15	3
12	Paraty	6	0	0	6	4	17	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Serra Macaense	Santa Cruz RJ
Cardoso Moreira	3-2 W	1-0 W
FC Rio de Janeiro	2-1 W	3-1 W
Paduano EC	1-2 L	0-1 L
7 de Abril	2-2 D	2-0 W
SE Belford Roxo	0-2 L	0-3 L
Macae Esporte FC	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Serra Macaense

DWWWLLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Cardoso Moreira Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-1	3-2	0	8	W
27/09	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
13/09	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
07/09	7 de Abril Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	0-1	0	6	L
09/11	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	0-2	2	6	L
06/11	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	2-1	4	13	W
02/11	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
26/10	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	1-0	4	11	W
19/10	Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-0	7	5	D

Santa Cruz RJ

WWLDWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-2	0-3	5	5	L
27/09	Cardoso Moreira Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
21/09	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	3-1	3-1	2	4	W
13/09	Buzios Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
06/09	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	0-1	–	–	L
30/08	7 de Abril Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	2-0	9	5	W
23/11	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	2-2	9	10	D
16/11	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-2	3	8	L
06/11	Paraty Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
27/10	7 de Abril Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Serra Macaense win (38%). Probabilities: Serra Macaense 38%, draw 28%, Santa Cruz RJ 33%.

How many goals are expected in Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Serra Macaense 1.27 · Santa Cruz RJ 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Serra Macaense vs Santa Cruz RJ?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.