Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2 · 05/10, 20:00

Prediction: Paraty vs FC Rio de Janeiro

Team pages: Paraty · FC Rio de Janeiro

See it on the live radar ↗

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Paraty1.42

FC Rio de Janeiro1.77

1X2

30% 25% 45%

Paraty Draw FC Rio de Janeiro

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Paraty 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLLLLL

FC Rio de Janeiro 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLWDLLLW

Head-to-head

Paraty 1–1 FC Rio de Janeiro (2 last)

Paraty2-0FC Rio de Janeiro
Paraty1-3FC Rio de Janeiro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paraty 1401 · FC Rio de Janeiro 1437

	Paraty	Draw	FC Rio de Janeiro
Our model	30%	25%	45%
Market	30%	26%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paraty	FC Rio de Janeiro
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.3	1 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.4 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/33/56%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	1.4 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.8	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.50

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
19:47 +6’	3.00	3.50	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Paraty 1–0–1 FC Rio de Janeiro

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/09/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	Paraty	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Rio de Janeiro
12/05/22 Brazil Campeonato Carioca C	Paraty	1-3 HT 0-0	FC Rio de Janeiro

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Friburguense	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
2	Cardoso Moreira	6	4	0	2	9	5	12
2	Santa Cruz RJ	6	4	0	2	9	5	12
4	Paduano EC	6	3	2	1	9	5	11
5	Serra Macaense	6	3	1	2	11	8	10
6	7 de Abril	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
7	SE Belford Roxo	6	2	3	1	12	6	9
8	FC Rio de Janeiro	6	2	1	3	7	7	7
9	Campos RJ	6	1	3	2	8	10	6
10	Barra Mansa	6	1	3	2	6	10	6
11	Buzios	6	1	0	5	4	15	3
12	Paraty	6	0	0	6	4	17	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paraty	FC Rio de Janeiro
Buzios	2-3 L	3-1 W
7 de Abril	0-1 L	2-6 L
SE Belford Roxo	0-4 L	0-0 D
Santa Cruz RJ	0-1 L	1-3 L
Barra Mansa	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: FC Rio de Janeiro (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paraty

DWLLLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Buzios Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	2-3	6	9	L
27/09	Paduano EC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-2	0-3	2	5	L
21/09	7 de Abril Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-1	6	10	L
13/09	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-2	1-4	5	2	L
06/09	Campos RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-2	2	8	L
30/08	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-2	0-4	1	6	L
09/11	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	2-3	–	–	L
06/11	Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
26/10	Barra Mansa Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
20/10	7 de Abril Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-1	1-1	4	6	D

FC Rio de Janeiro

LLLLWDLLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Barra Mansa Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	2-0	2	12	W
27/09	Serra Macaense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
21/09	Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-3	1-3	2	4	L
13/09	Cardoso Moreira Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
06/09	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
31/08	Buzios Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
06/11	7 de Abril Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-5	2-6	–	–	L
02/11	Serra Macaense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
26/10	SE Belford Roxo Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-4	–	–	L
19/10	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-2	1-6	7	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paraty vs FC Rio de Janeiro?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Rio de Janeiro win (45%). Probabilities: Paraty 30%, draw 25%, FC Rio de Janeiro 45%.

How many goals are expected in Paraty vs FC Rio de Janeiro?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Paraty 1.42 · FC Rio de Janeiro 1.77), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Paraty vs FC Rio de Janeiro?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.