Football · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2 · 06/10, 20:00

Prediction: 7 de Abril vs SE Belford Roxo

Team pages: 7 de Abril · SE Belford Roxo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

7 de Abril1.49

SE Belford Roxo1.55

1X2

35% 27% 38%

7 de Abril Draw SE Belford Roxo

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

7 de Abril 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDWWWL

SE Belford Roxo 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLWDDLDW

Head-to-head

7 de Abril 0–1 SE Belford Roxo (1 last)

7 de Abril0-3SE Belford Roxo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · 7 de Abril 1492 · SE Belford Roxo 1495

	7 de Abril	Draw	SE Belford Roxo
Our model	36%	26%	38%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	7 de Abril	SE Belford Roxo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1	0.8 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	2.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.5	5.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.30

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:09 +7’	2.55	3.30	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · 7 de Abril 0–0–1 SE Belford Roxo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/09/25 Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	7 de Abril	0-3 HT 0-0	SE Belford Roxo

Standings · Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Friburguense	6	4	2	0	11	4	14
2	Cardoso Moreira	6	4	0	2	9	5	12
2	Santa Cruz RJ	6	4	0	2	9	5	12
4	Paduano EC	6	3	2	1	9	5	11
5	Serra Macaense	6	3	1	2	11	8	10
6	7 de Abril	6	3	1	2	10	8	10
7	SE Belford Roxo	6	2	3	1	12	6	9
8	FC Rio de Janeiro	6	2	1	3	7	7	7
9	Campos RJ	6	1	3	2	8	10	6
10	Barra Mansa	6	1	3	2	6	10	6
11	Buzios	6	1	0	5	4	15	3
12	Paraty	6	0	0	6	4	17	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	7 de Abril	SE Belford Roxo
Friburguense	1-2 L	2-2 D
Campos RJ	2-1 W	2-2 D
Paraty	1-0 W	4-0 W
Serra Macaense	2-2 D	2-0 W
Santa Cruz RJ	0-2 L	3-0 W
Macae Esporte FC	0-2 L	0-3 L
FC Rio de Janeiro	6-2 W	0-0 D
Goytacaz	1-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: SE Belford Roxo (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

7 de Abril

LLWLLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-2	1-2	6	5	L
27/09	Campos RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
21/09	Paraty Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-0	6	10	W
14/09	Barra Mansa Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-1	4-1	4	7	W
07/09	Serra Macaense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
30/08	Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
09/11	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-2	0-2	4	1	L
06/11	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	5-1	6-2	–	–	W
02/11	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
27/10	Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-1	0-1	7	5	L

SE Belford Roxo

LWDLWDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Santa Cruz RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-0	3-0	6	5	W
27/09	Friburguense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	2-2	–	–	D
20/09	Cardoso Moreira Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
13/09	Campos RJ Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/09	FC Rio de Janeiro Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
30/08	Paraty Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	2-0	4-0	5	6	W
23/11	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	1-2	5	9	L
16/11	Goytacaz Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
09/11	Serra Macaense Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
02/11	Macae Esporte FC Brazil Campeonato Carioca B2	0-0	0-3	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in 7 de Abril vs SE Belford Roxo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SE Belford Roxo win (38%). Probabilities: 7 de Abril 35%, draw 27%, SE Belford Roxo 38%.

How many goals are expected in 7 de Abril vs SE Belford Roxo?

The model expects 3.04 goals (7 de Abril 1.49 · SE Belford Roxo 1.55), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in 7 de Abril vs SE Belford Roxo?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.