Football · Argentina Torneo A · 30/08, 20:30

Prediction: Gimnasia y Esgrima vs Independiente Chivilcoy

Team pages: Gimnasia y Esgrima · Independiente Chivilcoy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.98Total

Gimnasia y Esgrima1.36

Independiente Chivilcoy0.62

1X2

55% 29% 16%

Gimnasia y Esgrima Draw Independiente Chivilcoy

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

1-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Gimnasia y Esgrima 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLWDWW

Independiente Chivilcoy 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDDLDW

Head-to-head

Gimnasia y Esgrima 1–2–3 Independiente Chivilcoy (6 last)

Independiente Chivilcoy0-0Gimnasia y Esgrima
Gimnasia y Esgrima0-1Independiente Chivilcoy
Gimnasia y Esgrima3-0Independiente Chivilcoy
Independiente Chivilcoy3-0Gimnasia y Esgrima
Independiente Chivilcoy3-2Gimnasia y Esgrima
Gimnasia y Esgrima0-0Independiente Chivilcoy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimnasia y Esgrima 1517 · Independiente Chivilcoy 1469

	Gimnasia y Esgrima	Draw	Independiente Chivilcoy
Our model	54%	30%	16%
Market	55%	28%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 1.98 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimnasia y Esgrima (rating 1517 vs 1469).
H2H favours Independiente Chivilcoy: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimnasia y Esgrima	Independiente Chivilcoy
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.7 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.1	1.8 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:18 +4’	1.61	3.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimnasia y Esgrima 1–2–3 Independiente Chivilcoy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 Argentina Torneo A	Independiente Chivilcoy	0-0 HT 0-0	Gimnasia y Esgrima
12/04/26 Argentina Torneo A	Gimnasia y Esgrima	0-1 HT 0-1	Independiente Chivilcoy
08/06/25 Argentina Torneo A	Gimnasia y Esgrima	3-0 HT 2-0	Independiente Chivilcoy
06/04/25 Argentina Torneo A	Independiente Chivilcoy	3-0 HT 2-0	Gimnasia y Esgrima
08/09/24 Argentina Torneo A	Independiente Chivilcoy	3-2 HT 1-1	Gimnasia y Esgrima
01/06/24 Argentina Torneo A	Gimnasia y Esgrima	0-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Chivilcoy

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Relegation round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gimnasia y Esgrima	4	3	1	0	8	0	10
2	Boca Unidos	4	3	1	0	8	1	10
3	Defensores Puerto Vilelas	5	2	2	1	8	6	8
4	Escobar FC	5	2	1	2	4	7	7
5	Club Atlético El Linqueño	4	1	3	0	3	1	6
6	Independiente Chivilcoy	4	1	2	1	4	3	5
7	Sportivo Las Parejas	5	0	3	2	0	3	3
8	Sarmiento de Resistencia	4	1	0	3	3	9	3
9	Tucuman Central	5	0	1	4	6	14	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gimnasia y Esgrima	Independiente Chivilcoy
Club Atlético El Linqueño	0-0 D	1-2 L
Tucuman Central	4-0 W	2-0 W
Sportivo Las Parejas	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gimnasia y Esgrima (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gimnasia y Esgrima

DLLWDLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
16/08	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	2-0	2-0	7	9	W
13/08	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
02/08	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	2-0	4-0	8	2	W
26/07	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
12/07	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
05/07	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-0	1	6	W
28/06	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
21/06	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
14/06	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	1	3	D

Independiente Chivilcoy

DLLDLDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
16/08	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	0	5	D
12/08	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	1-1	1-2	11	6	L
08/08	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-1	3	8	D
26/07	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
12/07	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
05/07	Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
28/06	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-4	4	1	L
21/06	Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-2	2	11	L
14/06	Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimnasia y Esgrima vs Independiente Chivilcoy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gimnasia y Esgrima win (55%). Probabilities: Gimnasia y Esgrima 55%, draw 29%, Independiente Chivilcoy 16%.

How many goals are expected in Gimnasia y Esgrima vs Independiente Chivilcoy?

The model expects 1.98 goals (Gimnasia y Esgrima 1.36 · Independiente Chivilcoy 0.62), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimnasia y Esgrima vs Independiente Chivilcoy?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.