Football · Argentina Torneo A · 12/08, 21:00

Prediction: San Martin Formosa vs Sportivo Belgrano

Team pages: San Martin Formosa · Sportivo Belgrano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

San Martin Formosa1.25

Sportivo Belgrano0.87

1X2

44% 31% 25%

San Martin Formosa Draw Sportivo Belgrano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

San Martin Formosa 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLWWW

Sportivo Belgrano 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDDDDD

Head-to-head

San Martin Formosa 1–4 Sportivo Belgrano (5 last)

Sportivo Belgrano3-0San Martin Formosa
Sportivo Belgrano3-0San Martin Formosa
Sportivo Belgrano2-1San Martin Formosa
San Martin Formosa4-2Sportivo Belgrano
Sportivo Belgrano2-1San Martin Formosa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Martin Formosa 1561 · Sportivo Belgrano 1510

	San Martin Formosa	Draw	Sportivo Belgrano
Our model	44%	32%	25%
Market	45%	30%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Martin Formosa (rating 1561 vs 1510).
H2H favours Sportivo Belgrano: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Martin Formosa	Sportivo Belgrano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.2	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.00

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.98

Under 21.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:32 +5’	2.00	3.00	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin Formosa 1–0–4 Sportivo Belgrano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/07/25 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Belgrano	3-0 HT 1-0	San Martin Formosa
07/09/24 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Belgrano	3-0 HT 1-0	San Martin Formosa
04/10/22 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Belgrano	2-1 HT 1-0	San Martin Formosa
23/06/22 Argentina Torneo A	San Martin Formosa	4-2 HT 0-2	Sportivo Belgrano
07/12/19 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Belgrano	2-1 HT 1-0	San Martin Formosa

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Main round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Martin Formosa	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Sol de America de Formosa	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
3	Defensores de Belgrano VR	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
4	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
4	Sportivo Belgrano	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
6	CA Sarmiento de la Banda	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
7	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
8	CA Bartolome Mitre	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
9	CA Douglas Haig	2	0	1	1	1	4	1

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Martin Formosa

WWLWWDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	3-0	4-1	3	6	W
02/08	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
26/07	CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	6	1	W
12/07	CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
05/07	Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
28/06	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
21/06	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
14/06	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-3	14	4	L
07/06	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	0-1	3-2	4	9	W
25/05	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-1	3-2	6	8	W

Sportivo Belgrano

WLWDDDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-1	1	8	D
01/08	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
25/07	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
12/07	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
05/07	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-1	6	2	D
28/06	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
20/06	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
15/06	Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
07/06	Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
31/05	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	6	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Martin Formosa vs Sportivo Belgrano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Martin Formosa win (44%). Probabilities: San Martin Formosa 44%, draw 31%, Sportivo Belgrano 25%.

How many goals are expected in San Martin Formosa vs Sportivo Belgrano?

The model expects 2.12 goals (San Martin Formosa 1.25 · Sportivo Belgrano 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in San Martin Formosa vs Sportivo Belgrano?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.