Football · Argentina Torneo A · 23/08, 21:00
Prediction: San Martin Formosa vs CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
Team pages: San Martin Formosa · CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.96Total
San Martin Formosa2
CA 9 de Julio Rafaela0.95
1X2
San Martin Formosa
Draw
CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
San Martin Formosa
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Martin Formosa
3–1–2
CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
(6 last)
- San Martin Formosa4-1CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
- CA 9 de Julio Rafaela2-1San Martin Formosa
- San Martin Formosa2-0CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
- CA 9 de Julio Rafaela0-0San Martin Formosa
- CA 9 de Julio Rafaela2-1San Martin Formosa
- San Martin Formosa2-1CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Martin Formosa 1569 · CA 9 de Julio Rafaela 1496
| San Martin Formosa | Draw | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Market | 59% | 27% | 14% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Martin Formosa (rating 1569 vs 1496).
- H2H favours San Martin Formosa: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Martin Formosa | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.5 | 1.3 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin Formosa 3–1–2 CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/11/25 Argentina Torneo A | San Martin Formosa | 4-1 HT 2-0 | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela |
| 23/11/25 Argentina Torneo A | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela | 2-1 HT 1-0 | San Martin Formosa |
| 24/08/25 Argentina Torneo A | San Martin Formosa | 2-0 HT 1-0 | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela |
| 04/08/24 Argentina Torneo A | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Martin Formosa |
| 18/09/23 Argentina Torneo A | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela | 2-1 HT 1-1 | San Martin Formosa |
| 23/07/23 Argentina Torneo A | San Martin Formosa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela |
Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Main round, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Martin Formosa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 10 |
| 2 | Defensores de Belgrano VR | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Sol de America de Formosa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 4 | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | CA Douglas Haig | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 6 | Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 7 | CA Sarmiento de la Banda | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 8 | Sportivo Belgrano | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 9 | CA Bartolome Mitre | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Martin Formosa | CA 9 de Julio Rafaela |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Sportivo Belgrano | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| CA Douglas Haig | 4-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: San Martin Formosa (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Martin Formosa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 12/08 | Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 08/08 | CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 02/08 | Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 28/06 | Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 1-3 | 14 | 4 | L |
CA 9 de Julio Rafaela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 02/08 | CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 13/07 | Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 28/06 | Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 23/06 | Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Martin Formosa vs CA 9 de Julio Rafaela?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Martin Formosa win (60%). Probabilities: San Martin Formosa 60%, draw 25%, CA 9 de Julio Rafaela 15%.
How many goals are expected in San Martin Formosa vs CA 9 de Julio Rafaela?
The model expects 2.96 goals (San Martin Formosa 2 · CA 9 de Julio Rafaela 0.95), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in San Martin Formosa vs CA 9 de Julio Rafaela?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.