Football · Chile Segunda · 16/08, 22:00

Prediction: Deportes Linares vs Provincial Osorno

Team pages: Deportes Linares · Provincial Osorno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.31Total

Deportes Linares1.18

Provincial Osorno1.13

1X2

36% 30% 34%

Deportes Linares Draw Provincial Osorno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Linares 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLWWWW

Provincial Osorno 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DWWDDDDWDW

Head-to-head

Deportes Linares 2–3–1 Provincial Osorno (6 last)

Provincial Osorno1-1Deportes Linares
Deportes Linares0-1Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno2-2Deportes Linares
Deportes Linares1-0Provincial Osorno
Deportes Linares3-1Provincial Osorno
Provincial Osorno1-1Deportes Linares

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Linares 1516 · Provincial Osorno 1557

	Deportes Linares	Draw	Provincial Osorno
Our model	36%	31%	33%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Provincial Osorno (rating 1516 vs 1557).
H2H favours Deportes Linares: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Linares	Provincial Osorno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.6 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.6	1.8 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.5	5.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.47
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.14 ★
2	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:55 +11’	2.45	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:10	2.47	3.14	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Linares 2–3–1 Provincial Osorno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/06/26 Chile Segunda	Provincial Osorno	1-1 HT 1-0	Deportes Linares
11/04/26 Chile Segunda	Deportes Linares	0-1 HT 0-0	Provincial Osorno
30/08/25 Chile Segunda	Provincial Osorno	2-2 HT 1-1	Deportes Linares
18/04/25 Chile Segunda	Deportes Linares	1-0 HT 1-0	Provincial Osorno
14/09/24 Chile Segunda	Deportes Linares	3-1 HT 0-0	Provincial Osorno
04/05/24 Chile Segunda	Provincial Osorno	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportes Linares

Standings · Chile Segunda · Segunda Division 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportes Linares	1	1	0	2	1	3
2	Provincial Osorno	1	1	0	1	0	3
2	Santiago City	1	1	0	1	0	3
4	Brujas de Salamanca	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	CD Trasandino de Los Andes	1	0	1	1	2	0
6	Concon National	1	0	1	0	1	0
6	Colchagua CD	1	0	1	0	1	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Linares	Provincial Osorno
Colchagua CD	4-0 W	0-0 D
Santiago Morning	1-0 W	0-0 D
CD Rengo Unido	3-1 W	0-0 D
Lota Schwager	0-1 L	2-2 D
General Velásquez	1-2 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Deportes Linares (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Linares

LLLWDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	CD Trasandino de Los Andes Chile Segunda	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
12/07	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
28/06	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
20/06	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	1-0	3-1	12	7	W
14/06	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
06/06	Provincial Osorno Chile Segunda	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
30/05	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/05	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	1-2	1-2	12	8	L
10/05	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	0-2	0-3	7	7	L
26/04	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-1	1-3	6	9	L

Provincial Osorno

DWWDDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Concon National Chile Segunda	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
12/07	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	0-0	2-2	2	7	D
04/07	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
21/06	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
06/06	Deportes Linares Chile Segunda	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
30/05	Santiago Morning Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
23/05	CD Rengo Unido Chile Segunda	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
09/05	Lota Schwager Chile Segunda	0-0	1-0	9	5	W
03/05	General Velásquez Chile Segunda	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
18/04	Colchagua CD Chile Segunda	2-0	2-2	4	9	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Linares vs Provincial Osorno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Linares win (36%). Probabilities: Deportes Linares 36%, draw 30%, Provincial Osorno 34%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Linares vs Provincial Osorno?

The model expects 2.31 goals (Deportes Linares 1.18 · Provincial Osorno 1.13), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Linares vs Provincial Osorno?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.