Football · Saudi Arabia Pro League · 24/08, 18:40

Prediction: Neom SC vs Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

Team pages: Neom SC · Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Neom SC1.04

Al Qadisiya Al Khubar1.83

1X2

21% 24% 56%

Neom SC Draw Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Neom SC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Al Qadisiya Al Khubar 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Neom SC 0–2 Al Qadisiya Al Khubar (2 last)

Al Qadisiya Al Khubar1-0Neom SC
Neom SC1-3Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Neom SC 1565 · Al Qadisiya Al Khubar 1586

	Neom SC	Draw	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
Our model	20%	25%	55%
Market	21%	22%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Al Qadisiya Al Khubar: 2-0-0.
High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Neom SC	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	2.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	3.6 / 9.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.20

X4.00

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.90 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.16
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:48 +6’	4.20	4.00	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +5’	4.90	4.16	1.59

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Neom SC 0–0–2 Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/02/26 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar	1-0 HT 0-0	Neom SC
19/10/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Neom SC	1-3 HT 0-2	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

Standings · Saudi Arabia Pro League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al-Nassr Riyadh	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
2	Al Hilal Riyadh	2	2	0	0	7	2	6
3	Al Ahli Jeddah	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
4	Al Ittifaq Dammam	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	Neom SC	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
6	Al Kholood	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
7	Al Ittihad Jeddah	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
8	Al Draih	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
9	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
10	Al Hazem	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
11	Al Khaleej Saihat	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
12	Al Taawon Buraidah	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	Al Shabab Riyadh	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
14	Al Faisaly Harmah	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
15	Al Fayha	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
16	Al Fateh SC	2	0	0	2	0	4	0
17	Abha	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
18	Al Riyadh	2	0	0	2	2	8	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Neom SC	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
Al Fayha	2-1 W	2-1 W
Al Ittifaq Dammam	1-1 D	2-3 L
Al Shabab Riyadh	2-1 W	3-1 W
Al Hazem	1-1 D	2-0 W
Al Ittihad Jeddah	4-3 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Neom SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Al Faisaly Harmah Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	2-0	0	0	W
14/08	Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
21/05	Al Ittifaq Dammam Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	1-1	4	1	D
16/05	Al Hilal Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
11/05	Al Shabab Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
02/05	Al Fateh SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
28/04	Al Hazem Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
11/04	Al Najma Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	1-2	22	4	L
08/04	Al Ittihad Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-2	4-3	3	4	W
04/04	Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	1-0	5	4	W

Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Al Ittihad Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	0-1	15	3	L
13/08	Al Shabab Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	3-1	9	3	W
21/05	Al Ittihad Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	3-1	5-1	10	5	W
14/05	Al Hazem Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
09/05	Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
03/05	Al-Nassr Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
29/04	Al Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	4-0	11	2	W
14/04	Al Shabab Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	2-2	13	3	D
09/04	Damac FC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	1-1	12	2	D
05/04	Al Ittifaq Dammam Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	2-3	7	12	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Neom SC vs Al Qadisiya Al Khubar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Qadisiya Al Khubar win (56%). Probabilities: Neom SC 21%, draw 24%, Al Qadisiya Al Khubar 56%.

How many goals are expected in Neom SC vs Al Qadisiya Al Khubar?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Neom SC 1.04 · Al Qadisiya Al Khubar 1.83), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Neom SC vs Al Qadisiya Al Khubar?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.