Football · Saudi Arabia Pro League · 01/09, 20:00

Prediction: Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah

Team pages: Al Hilal Riyadh · Al Ahli Jeddah

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Al Hilal Riyadh1.79

Al Ahli Jeddah1.13

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Al Hilal Riyadh Draw Al Ahli Jeddah

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Hilal Riyadh 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWWW

Al Ahli Jeddah 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Al Hilal Riyadh 1–3–2 Al Ahli Jeddah (6 last)

Al Ahli Jeddah1-1Al Hilal Riyadh
Al Hilal Riyadh0-0Al Ahli Jeddah
Al Ahli Jeddah3-3Al Hilal Riyadh
Al Hilal Riyadh1-3Al Ahli Jeddah
Al Hilal Riyadh2-3Al Ahli Jeddah
Al Ahli Jeddah1-2Al Hilal Riyadh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Hilal Riyadh 1630 · Al Ahli Jeddah 1585

	Al Hilal Riyadh	Draw	Al Ahli Jeddah
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	52%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Hilal Riyadh (rating 1630 vs 1585).
H2H favours Al Ahli Jeddah: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Hilal Riyadh	Al Ahli Jeddah
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.5	2.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.3	1.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.8	1.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.16 ★
2	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.09

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
07:35 +3’	1.73	3.70	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:03 +4’	1.76	4.04	3.90
00:50 +4’	1.74▼	4.08▲	3.99▲
17:29 +3’	1.70▼	4.16▲	4.09▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Hilal Riyadh 1–3–2 Al Ahli Jeddah

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 Saudi Arabia Cup	Al Ahli Jeddah	1-1 HT 0-1	Al Hilal Riyadh
02/02/26 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Hilal Riyadh	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Ahli Jeddah
19/09/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Ahli Jeddah	3-3 HT 0-3	Al Hilal Riyadh
29/04/25 AFC Champions League Elite	Al Hilal Riyadh	1-3 HT 1-2	Al Ahli Jeddah
28/02/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Hilal Riyadh	2-3 HT 0-0	Al Ahli Jeddah
05/10/24 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Ahli Jeddah	1-2 HT 1-0	Al Hilal Riyadh

Standings · Saudi Arabia Pro League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al-Nassr Riyadh	4	4	0	0	12	3	12
2	Al Hilal Riyadh	3	3	0	0	12	3	9
3	Al Kholood	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
4	Al Ittihad Jeddah	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
5	Al Draih	4	2	1	1	5	2	7
6	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
7	Al Ahli Jeddah	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
8	Al Ittifaq Dammam	4	2	0	2	7	8	6
9	Neom SC	4	2	0	2	4	4	6
10	Al Fayha	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
11	Al Riyadh	4	1	1	2	6	11	4
12	Al Hazm	3	1	0	2	4	5	3
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	4	0	3	1	2	6	3
14	Al Shabab Riyadh	3	0	2	1	4	6	2
15	Al Taawon Buraidah	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
16	Al Fateh SC	4	0	2	2	1	5	2
17	Al Faisaly Harmah	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
18	Abha	4	0	1	3	4	10	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Hilal Riyadh	Al Ahli Jeddah
Al Khaleej Saihat	5-1 W	4-1 W
Al Fayha	3-0 W	1-1 D
Al-Nassr Riyadh	1-1 D	0-2 L
Al Kholood	6-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al Hilal Riyadh (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Hilal Riyadh

WWWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Al Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League	5-1	5-1	2	2	W
20/08	Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
14/08	Al Faisaly Harmah Saudi Arabia Pro League	3-0	4-2	7	1	W
21/05	Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
16/05	Neom SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
12/05	Al-Nassr Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
05/05	Al Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
02/05	Al Hazm Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
28/04	Damac FC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	1-0	12	1	W
08/04	Al Kholood Saudi Arabia Pro League	4-0	6-0	3	4	W

Al Ahli Jeddah

DLWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Al Kholood Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
22/08	Abha Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-0	4-0	2	4	W
13/08	Al Draih Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
20/05	Al Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
16/05	Al Kholood Saudi Arabia Pro League	3-0	3-0	4	2	W
11/05	Al Taawon Buraidah Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
06/05	Al Fateh SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	3-1	2	2	W
03/05	Al Okhdood Saudi Arabia Pro League	3-0	4-0	6	3	W
29/04	Al-Nassr Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
08/04	Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	1-1	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Hilal Riyadh win (52%). Probabilities: Al Hilal Riyadh 52%, draw 25%, Al Ahli Jeddah 23%.

How many goals are expected in Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Al Hilal Riyadh 1.79 · Al Ahli Jeddah 1.13), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Ahli Jeddah?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.