Football · Saudi Arabia Pro League · 04/09, 20:00
Prediction: Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh
Team pages: Al Ahli Jeddah · Al Riyadh
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.29Total
Al Ahli Jeddah2.47
Al Riyadh0.82
1X2
Al Ahli Jeddah
Draw
Al Riyadh
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Al Ahli Jeddah
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Al Riyadh
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Al Ahli Jeddah
4–1–1
Al Riyadh
(6 last)
- Al Riyadh0-1Al Ahli Jeddah
- Al Ahli Jeddah1-1Al Riyadh
- Al Riyadh0-1Al Ahli Jeddah
- Al Ahli Jeddah5-0Al Riyadh
- Al Riyadh2-1Al Ahli Jeddah
- Al Ahli Jeddah3-0Al Riyadh
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Al Ahli Jeddah 1592 · Al Riyadh 1477
| Al Ahli Jeddah | Draw | Al Riyadh | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 18% | 10% |
| Market | 73% | 17% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Ahli Jeddah (rating 1592 vs 1477).
- H2H favours Al Ahli Jeddah: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Al Ahli Jeddah | Al Riyadh | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.3 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.5 | 2.4 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Ahli Jeddah 4–1–1 Al Riyadh
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/26 Saudi Arabia Pro League | Al Riyadh | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Al Ahli Jeddah |
| 30/10/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League | Al Ahli Jeddah | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Al Riyadh |
| 26/05/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League | Al Riyadh | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Al Ahli Jeddah |
| 26/01/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League | Al Ahli Jeddah | 5-0 HT 1-0 | Al Riyadh |
| 25/04/24 Saudi Arabia Pro League | Al Riyadh | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Al Ahli Jeddah |
| 05/11/23 Saudi Arabia Pro League | Al Ahli Jeddah | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Al Riyadh |
Standings · Saudi Arabia Pro League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al-Nassr Riyadh | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 12 |
| 2 | Al Hilal Riyadh | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Al Qadisiya Al Khubar | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Al Kholood | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | Al Ittihad Jeddah | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Al Draih | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Ahli Jeddah | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Neom SC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Al Ittifaq Dammam | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 10 | Al Hazm | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 11 | Al Fayha | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Al Riyadh | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 4 |
| 13 | Al Shabab Riyadh | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Al Khaleej Saihat | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Al Taawon Buraidah | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Al Fateh SC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 17 | Abha | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| 17 | Al Faisaly Harmah | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Al Ahli Jeddah | Al Riyadh |
|---|---|---|
| Al Taawon Buraidah | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Al Fateh SC | 3-1 W | 1-0 W |
| Al Okhdood | 4-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Al-Nassr Riyadh | 0-2 L | 0-4 L |
| Al Fayha | 1-1 D | 2-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Al Ahli Jeddah (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Al Ahli Jeddah
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Al Kholood Saudi Arabia Pro League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Abha Saudi Arabia Pro League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/08 | Al Draih Saudi Arabia Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 20/05 | Al Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Al Kholood Saudi Arabia Pro League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 11/05 | Al Taawon Buraidah Saudi Arabia Pro League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | Al Fateh SC Saudi Arabia Pro League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Al Okhdood Saudi Arabia Pro League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/04 | Al-Nassr Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 08/04 | Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
Al Riyadh
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Neom SC Saudi Arabia Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/08 | Al Shabab Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 21/08 | Al-Nassr Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 14/08 | Al Ittifaq Dammam Saudi Arabia Pro League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | Al Okhdood Saudi Arabia Pro League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 15/05 | Al Taawon Buraidah Saudi Arabia Pro League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Al Fateh SC Saudi Arabia Pro League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 29/04 | Al Qadisiya Al Khubar Saudi Arabia Pro League |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/04 | Al Hazem Saudi Arabia Pro League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Ahli Jeddah win (73%). Probabilities: Al Ahli Jeddah 73%, draw 17%, Al Riyadh 10%.
How many goals are expected in Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh?
The model expects 3.29 goals (Al Ahli Jeddah 2.47 · Al Riyadh 0.82), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Al Ahli Jeddah vs Al Riyadh?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.