Football · Saudi Arabia Pro League · 12/09, 20:00

Prediction: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Riyadh

Team pages: Al Khaleej Saihat · Al-Nassr Riyadh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

Al Khaleej Saihat1.09

Al-Nassr Riyadh2.76

1X2

12% 17% 71%

Al Khaleej Saihat Draw Al-Nassr Riyadh

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Khaleej Saihat 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLDDDLLD

Al-Nassr Riyadh 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Al Khaleej Saihat 0–6 Al-Nassr Riyadh (6 last)

Al Khaleej Saihat0-5Al-Nassr Riyadh
Al-Nassr Riyadh4-1Al Khaleej Saihat
Al-Nassr Riyadh2-0Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat1-3Al-Nassr Riyadh
Al-Nassr Riyadh3-1Al Khaleej Saihat
Al Khaleej Saihat0-1Al-Nassr Riyadh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Khaleej Saihat 1389 · Al-Nassr Riyadh 1578

	Al Khaleej Saihat	Draw	Al-Nassr Riyadh
Our model	12%	17%	72%
Market	11%	17%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al-Nassr Riyadh (rating 1389 vs 1578).
H2H favours Al-Nassr Riyadh: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Khaleej Saihat	Al-Nassr Riyadh
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 2.3	2.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	3.9 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

18.00

X5.25

21.28

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.80

2 (-1.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:55

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.4%

Time*	1	X	2
23:37 +18’	8.00	5.25	1.28

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Khaleej Saihat 0–0–6 Al-Nassr Riyadh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Khaleej Saihat	0-5 HT 0-1	Al-Nassr Riyadh
23/11/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-Nassr Riyadh	4-1 HT 2-0	Al Khaleej Saihat
21/05/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al-Nassr Riyadh	2-0 HT 0-0	Al Khaleej Saihat
21/01/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Khaleej Saihat	1-3 HT 0-0	Al-Nassr Riyadh
01/05/24 Saudi Arabia Cup	Al-Nassr Riyadh	3-1 HT 2-0	Al Khaleej Saihat
27/04/24 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Khaleej Saihat	0-1 HT 0-0	Al-Nassr Riyadh

Standings · Saudi Arabia Pro League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Hilal Riyadh	6	5	0	1	17	5	15
2	Al Ittihad Jeddah	6	4	2	0	9	5	14
3	Al-Nassr Riyadh	5	4	0	1	13	5	12
4	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar	5	4	0	1	10	3	12
5	Neom SC	6	4	0	2	9	4	12
6	Al Ittifaq Dammam	6	3	1	2	8	8	10
7	Al Ahli Jeddah	5	3	0	2	11	6	9
8	Al Kholood	5	2	3	0	10	7	9
9	Al Hazm	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
10	Al Draih	5	2	1	2	5	4	7
11	Al Fayha	6	1	2	3	7	11	5
12	Al Riyadh	6	1	2	3	6	16	5
13	Al Khaleej Saihat	6	0	4	2	2	9	4
14	Al Taawon Buraidah	6	0	3	3	3	6	3
15	Al Shabab Riyadh	5	0	3	2	5	9	3
16	Al Fateh SC	5	0	3	2	1	5	3
17	Al Faisaly Harmah	6	0	3	3	4	10	3
18	Abha	5	0	1	4	4	11	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Khaleej Saihat	Al-Nassr Riyadh
Al Riyadh	0-0 D	4-0 W
Al Hilal Riyadh	1-5 L	1-1 D
Al Shabab Riyadh	0-0 D	4-2 W
Al Taawon Buraidah	0-0 D	2-1 W
Al Ahli Jeddah	1-4 L	2-0 W
Al Ittifaq Dammam	0-5 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al-Nassr Riyadh (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Khaleej Saihat

LLLLDDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Al Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
03/09	Neom SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-3	0-3	2	4	L
28/08	Al Hilal Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-5	1-5	3	2	L
25/08	Abha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
22/08	Al Shabab Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
15/08	Al Taawon Buraidah Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
20/05	Al Ahli Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-2	1-4	5	2	L
16/05	Al Okhdood Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	1-3	6	4	L
09/05	Al Ittifaq Dammam Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	0-5	4	3	L
05/05	Al Hilal Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	1-2	5	6	L

Al-Nassr Riyadh

WLWDWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Al Ittihad Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-2	1-2	14	6	L
28/08	Al Taawon Buraidah Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	2-1	10	3	W
25/08	Al Ittifaq Dammam Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-2	3-2	6	3	W
21/08	Al Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-0	4-0	9	0	W
15/08	Al Fateh SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
21/05	Damac FC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	4-1	6	6	W
12/05	Al Hilal Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	1-1	5	7	D
07/05	Al Shabab Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-1	4-2	8	3	W
03/05	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
29/04	Al Ahli Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	2-0	8	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Riyadh?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al-Nassr Riyadh win (71%). Probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 12%, draw 17%, Al-Nassr Riyadh 71%.

How many goals are expected in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Riyadh?

The model expects 3.85 goals (Al Khaleej Saihat 1.09 · Al-Nassr Riyadh 2.76), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al-Nassr Riyadh?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.