Football · Saudi Arabia Pro League · 04/09, 20:00

Prediction: Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Hilal Riyadh

Team pages: Al Shabab Riyadh · Al Hilal Riyadh

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Al Shabab Riyadh0.93

Al Hilal Riyadh2.31

1X2

13% 20% 67%

Al Shabab Riyadh Draw Al Hilal Riyadh

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Shabab Riyadh 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLLDDD

Al Hilal Riyadh 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Al Shabab Riyadh 0–1–5 Al Hilal Riyadh (6 last)

Al Shabab Riyadh3-5Al Hilal Riyadh
Al Hilal Riyadh1-0Al Shabab Riyadh
Al Hilal Riyadh2-2Al Shabab Riyadh
Al Shabab Riyadh1-2Al Hilal Riyadh
Al Shabab Riyadh3-4Al Hilal Riyadh
Al Hilal Riyadh2-0Al Shabab Riyadh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Shabab Riyadh 1472 · Al Hilal Riyadh 1647

	Al Shabab Riyadh	Draw	Al Hilal Riyadh
Our model	13%	20%	67%
Market	13%	20%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Hilal Riyadh (rating 1472 vs 1647).
H2H favours Al Hilal Riyadh: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Shabab Riyadh	Al Hilal Riyadh
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	2.8 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	1.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	80/10/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.4	3.2 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

17.00

X4.50

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.80

2 (-1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:09 +3’	7.00	4.50	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Shabab Riyadh 0–1–5 Al Hilal Riyadh

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Shabab Riyadh	3-5 HT 2-3	Al Hilal Riyadh
31/10/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Hilal Riyadh	1-0 HT 1-0	Al Shabab Riyadh
21/04/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Hilal Riyadh	2-2 HT 1-1	Al Shabab Riyadh
30/11/24 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Shabab Riyadh	1-2 HT 1-1	Al Hilal Riyadh
30/03/24 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Shabab Riyadh	3-4 HT 1-3	Al Hilal Riyadh
29/09/23 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Hilal Riyadh	2-0 HT 0-0	Al Shabab Riyadh

Standings · Saudi Arabia Pro League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al-Nassr Riyadh	4	4	0	0	12	3	12
2	Al Hilal Riyadh	3	3	0	0	12	3	9
3	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar	4	3	0	1	8	3	9
4	Al Kholood	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
5	Al Ittihad Jeddah	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
6	Al Draih	4	2	1	1	5	2	7
7	Al Ahli Jeddah	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
8	Neom SC	4	2	0	2	4	4	6
9	Al Ittifaq Dammam	4	2	0	2	7	8	6
10	Al Hazm	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
11	Al Fayha	4	1	1	2	4	7	4
12	Al Riyadh	4	1	1	2	6	11	4
13	Al Shabab Riyadh	4	0	3	1	5	7	3
14	Al Khaleej Saihat	4	0	3	1	2	6	3
15	Al Taawon Buraidah	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
16	Al Fateh SC	4	0	2	2	1	5	2
17	Abha	4	0	1	3	4	10	1
17	Al Faisaly Harmah	4	0	1	3	4	10	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Shabab Riyadh	Al Hilal Riyadh
Al Hazem	1-1 D	3-0 W
Al Khaleej Saihat	0-0 D	5-1 W
Neom SC	1-2 L	2-0 W
Al-Nassr Riyadh	2-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Hilal Riyadh (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Shabab Riyadh

DLLLWLLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Al Hazem Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
25/08	Al Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	2-2	3-3	10	3	D
22/08	Al Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
13/08	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
20/05	Al Najma Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	0-1	9	8	L
17/05	Al Ittihad Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	3-2	4	5	W
11/05	Neom SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
07/05	Al-Nassr Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-2	2-4	2	3	L
03/05	Al Taawon Buraidah Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-2	1-5	6	3	L
28/04	Al Fateh SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D

Al Hilal Riyadh

WWWWDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/08	Al Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League	5-1	5-1	2	2	W
20/08	Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
14/08	Al Faisaly Harmah Saudi Arabia Pro League	3-0	4-2	7	1	W
21/05	Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
16/05	Neom SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
12/05	Al-Nassr Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
05/05	Al Khaleej Saihat Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
02/05	Al Hazem Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
28/04	Damac FC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	1-0	12	1	W
08/04	Al Kholood Saudi Arabia Pro League	4-0	6-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Hilal Riyadh win (67%). Probabilities: Al Shabab Riyadh 13%, draw 20%, Al Hilal Riyadh 67%.

How many goals are expected in Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Al Shabab Riyadh 0.93 · Al Hilal Riyadh 2.31), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Hilal Riyadh?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.