Football · Saudi Arabia Pro League · 13/08, 20:00

Prediction: Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

Al Shabab Riyadh1.23

Al Qadisiya Al Khubar2.19

1X2

19% 22% 58%

Al Shabab Riyadh Draw Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Al Shabab Riyadh 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLDWWW

Al Qadisiya Al Khubar 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDDWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Al Shabab Riyadh 1–2–3 Al Qadisiya Al Khubar (6 last)

Al Qadisiya Al Khubar2-2Al Shabab Riyadh
Al Shabab Riyadh2-3Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
Al Shabab Riyadh2-3Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
Al Qadisiya Al Khubar0-1Al Shabab Riyadh
Al Shabab Riyadh1-1Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
Al Qadisiya Al Khubar1-0Al Shabab Riyadh

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Shabab Riyadh 1496 · Al Qadisiya Al Khubar 1577

	Al Shabab Riyadh	Draw	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
Our model	20%	22%	58%
Market	19%	23%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Qadisiya Al Khubar (rating 1496 vs 1577).
H2H favours Al Qadisiya Al Khubar: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Shabab Riyadh	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	2.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	3 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.75

X4.00

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.43 ★
2	1.57 → 1.57	Pinn 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:18 +3’	4.75	4.00	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:25	4.51	4.28	1.62
05:24	4.62▲	4.43▲	1.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Shabab Riyadh 1–2–3 Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar	2-2 HT 1-1	Al Shabab Riyadh
31/12/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Shabab Riyadh	2-3 HT 0-3	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
13/02/25 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Shabab Riyadh	2-3 HT 1-0	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
15/09/24 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar	0-1 HT 0-1	Al Shabab Riyadh
05/03/21 Saudi Arabia Pro League	Al Shabab Riyadh	1-1 HT 0-1	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
16/12/20 Saudi Arabia Cup	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Shabab Riyadh

Standings · Saudi Arabia Pro League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Abha	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Ahli Jeddah	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Ittifaq Dammam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Faisaly Harmah	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Fateh SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Fayha	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Hazm	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Hilal Riyadh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Ittihad Jeddah	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Khaleej Saihat	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Kholood	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Nassr Riyadh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Riyadh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Shabab Riyadh	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Taawon Buraidah	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Draih	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Neom SC	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Shabab Riyadh	Al Qadisiya Al Khubar
Al Ittihad Jeddah	3-2 W	5-1 W
Al-Nassr Riyadh	2-4 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Qadisiya Al Khubar (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Al Shabab Riyadh

DLLLWLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	MC Alger World Club Friendlies	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
30/07	Al-Ahli Doha Club Friendly List	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
26/07	Al Naser SC World Club Friendlies	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
21/07	Stiinta Poli Timisoara Club Friendly List	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
20/05	Al Najma Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	0-1	9	8	L
17/05	Al Ittihad Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-0	3-2	4	5	W
11/05	Neom SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
07/05	Al-Nassr Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-2	2-4	2	3	L
03/05	Al Taawon Buraidah Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-2	1-5	6	3	L
28/04	Al Fateh SC Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D

Al Qadisiya Al Khubar

WLDDWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Levante World Club Friendlies	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
21/05	Al Ittihad Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	3-1	5-1	10	5	W
14/05	Al Hazm Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
09/05	Al Fayha Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
03/05	Al-Nassr Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	3-1	6	4	W
29/04	Al Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-0	4-0	11	2	W
14/04	Al Shabab Riyadh Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	2-2	13	3	D
09/04	Damac FC Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	1-1	12	2	D
05/04	Al Ittifaq Dammam Saudi Arabia Pro League	1-1	2-3	7	12	L
13/03	Al Ahli Jeddah Saudi Arabia Pro League	0-2	3-2	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Qadisiya Al Khubar?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Qadisiya Al Khubar win (58%). Probabilities: Al Shabab Riyadh 19%, draw 22%, Al Qadisiya Al Khubar 58%.

How many goals are expected in Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Qadisiya Al Khubar?

The model expects 3.42 goals (Al Shabab Riyadh 1.23 · Al Qadisiya Al Khubar 2.19), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Shabab Riyadh vs Al Qadisiya Al Khubar?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.