Football · Thailand Division 2 · 14/10, 13:00

Prediction: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United

Team pages: Nong Bua Pitchaya · Chiangmai United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Nong Bua Pitchaya1.83

Chiangmai United1.05

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Nong Bua Pitchaya Draw Chiangmai United

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Nong Bua Pitchaya 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLDWD

Chiangmai United 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Nong Bua Pitchaya 5–1 Chiangmai United (6 last)

Chiangmai United3-0Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya1-0Chiangmai United
Nong Bua Pitchaya2-1Chiangmai United
Chiangmai United1-3Nong Bua Pitchaya
Chiangmai United1-3Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya3-1Chiangmai United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nong Bua Pitchaya 1509 · Chiangmai United 1512

	Nong Bua Pitchaya	Draw	Chiangmai United
Our model	55%	25%	20%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nong Bua Pitchaya: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nong Bua Pitchaya	Chiangmai United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.6	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.71 ★
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:56 +10’	1.61	3.90	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:15 +51’	1.71	3.58	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Nong Bua Pitchaya 5–0–1 Chiangmai United

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Thailand Division 2	Chiangmai United	3-0 HT 0-0	Nong Bua Pitchaya
13/12/25 Thailand Division 2	Nong Bua Pitchaya	1-0 HT 0-0	Chiangmai United
28/01/24 Thailand Division 2	Nong Bua Pitchaya	2-1 HT 1-0	Chiangmai United
16/09/23 Thailand Division 2	Chiangmai United	1-3	Nong Bua Pitchaya
20/03/22 Thailand Premier League	Chiangmai United	1-3 HT 0-2	Nong Bua Pitchaya
06/11/21 Thailand Premier League	Nong Bua Pitchaya	3-1 HT 1-1	Chiangmai United

Standings · Thailand Division 2

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uttaradit FC	5	3	2	0	11	7	11
2	Chainat FC	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
3	PT Satun	5	3	0	2	12	9	9
4	Chiangmai United	5	3	0	2	7	4	9
5	Khonkaen United	5	3	0	2	7	4	9
6	Muang Loei United	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
7	Nong Bua Pitchaya	5	2	2	1	9	7	8
8	Nakhon Pathom FC	5	1	4	0	4	3	7
9	Phrae United	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
10	Police Tero FC	5	2	1	2	5	6	7
11	Muang Thong United	5	2	1	2	3	5	7
12	Kanchanaburi Power	5	1	3	1	7	6	6
13	Chanthaburi FC	5	1	2	2	5	5	5
14	Songkhla FC	5	1	2	2	6	7	5
15	Pattaya United	5	1	2	2	3	8	5
16	Nakhon Ratchasima	5	0	3	2	6	8	3
17	Mahasarakham SBT FC	5	0	3	2	5	9	3
18	Kasetsart FC	5	0	1	4	0	8	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nong Bua Pitchaya	Chiangmai United
Muang Thong United	1-2 L	0-1 L
Kasetsart FC	2-0 W	2-0 W
Rasi Salai United	3-3 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nong Bua Pitchaya (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nong Bua Pitchaya

DLWWLWLDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Chanthaburi FC Thailand Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
19/09	PT Satun Thailand Division 2	2-0	4-3	3	4	W
16/09	Uttaradit FC Thailand Division 2	2-0	2-2	5	4	D
12/09	Muang Thong United Thailand Division 2	1-0	1-2	4	2	L
06/09	Kasetsart FC Thailand Division 2	2-0	2-0	9	3	W
23/05	Pattani FC Thailand Division 2	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
16/05	Pattani FC Thailand Division 2	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
09/05	Police Tero FC Thailand Division 2	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Police Tero FC Thailand Division 2	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
25/04	Rasi Salai United Thailand Division 2	2-2	3-3	8	2	D

Chiangmai United

LLLWWLWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Kasetsart FC Thailand Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/09	Muang Thong United Thailand Division 2	0-1	0-1	5	6	L
15/09	Khonkaen United Thailand Division 2	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
12/09	Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Division 2	2-1	2-1	6	5	W
05/09	Pattaya United Thailand Division 2	0-0	0-1	1	3	L
25/04	Kasetsart FC Thailand Division 2	1-1	4-3	1	3	W
18/04	Nong Bua Pitchaya Thailand Division 2	0-0	3-0	5	5	W
04/04	Rasi Salai United Thailand Division 2	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
21/03	Khonkaen United Thailand Division 2	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
14/03	Trat FC Thailand Division 2	0-0	0-1	10	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nong Bua Pitchaya win (55%). Probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 55%, draw 24%, Chiangmai United 21%.

How many goals are expected in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.83 · Chiangmai United 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Chiangmai United?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.