Football · Thailand Division 2 · 17/10, 13:00

Prediction: Nakhon Pathom FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya

Team pages: Nakhon Pathom FC · Nong Bua Pitchaya

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Nakhon Pathom FC1.26

Nong Bua Pitchaya1.32

1X2

34% 28% 37%

Nakhon Pathom FC Draw Nong Bua Pitchaya

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Nakhon Pathom FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDDDWL

Nong Bua Pitchaya 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLDWDW

Head-to-head

Nakhon Pathom FC 1–3–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya (6 last)

Nakhon Pathom FC3-1Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya1-0Nakhon Pathom FC
Nong Bua Pitchaya0-0Nakhon Pathom FC
Nakhon Pathom FC1-1Nong Bua Pitchaya
Nong Bua Pitchaya2-1Nakhon Pathom FC
Nakhon Pathom FC0-0Nong Bua Pitchaya

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nakhon Pathom FC 1510 · Nong Bua Pitchaya 1516

	Nakhon Pathom FC	Draw	Nong Bua Pitchaya
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	35%	28%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Nong Bua Pitchaya: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nakhon Pathom FC	Nong Bua Pitchaya
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1	1.9 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2.8 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.20

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 3.37 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.24
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:57 +6’	2.60	3.20	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:42 +82’	3.37	3.24	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nakhon Pathom FC 1–3–2 Nong Bua Pitchaya

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Thailand Division 2	Nakhon Pathom FC	3-1 HT 0-1	Nong Bua Pitchaya
03/12/25 Thailand Division 2	Nong Bua Pitchaya	1-0 HT 0-0	Nakhon Pathom FC
26/02/25 Thailand League Cup	Nong Bua Pitchaya	0-0 HT 0-0	Nakhon Pathom FC
14/01/25 Thailand Premier League	Nakhon Pathom FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Nong Bua Pitchaya
24/08/24 Thailand Premier League	Nong Bua Pitchaya	2-1 HT 1-0	Nakhon Pathom FC
10/02/21 Thailand Division 2	Nakhon Pathom FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Nong Bua Pitchaya

Standings · Thailand Division 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nong Bua Pitchaya	6	3	2	1	12	8	11
2	Uttaradit FC	5	3	2	0	11	7	11
3	Chainat FC	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
4	Phrae United	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
5	PT Satun	5	3	0	2	12	9	9
6	Khonkaen United	5	3	0	2	7	4	9
7	Kanchanaburi Power	6	2	3	1	8	6	9
8	Chiangmai United	6	3	0	3	8	7	9
9	Muang Loei United	6	2	2	2	10	7	8
10	Chanthaburi FC	6	2	2	2	8	5	8
11	Pattaya United	6	2	2	2	6	10	8
12	Police Tero FC	6	2	1	3	5	7	7
13	Nakhon Pathom FC	6	1	4	1	4	6	7
14	Muang Thong United	6	2	1	3	3	6	7
15	Nakhon Ratchasima	6	1	3	2	9	10	6
16	Songkhla FC	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
17	Kasetsart FC	6	1	1	4	3	9	4
18	Mahasarakham SBT FC	6	0	3	3	6	12	3

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nakhon Pathom FC	Nong Bua Pitchaya
Chanthaburi FC	0-3 L	0-0 D
Muang Thong United	1-0 W	1-2 L
Kasetsart FC	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Nong Bua Pitchaya (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nakhon Pathom FC

WWLWDDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Chanthaburi FC Thailand Division 2	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
10/10	Muang Thong United Thailand Division 2	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
20/09	Kasetsart FC Thailand Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
16/09	Kanchanaburi Power Thailand Division 2	0-0	1-1	7	6	D
13/09	Phrae United Thailand Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
05/09	Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Division 2	1-0	2-2	4	6	D
25/04	Phrae United Thailand Division 2	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
19/04	Bangkok FC Thailand Division 2	0-1	0-3	7	6	L
04/04	Mahasarakham SBT FC Thailand Division 2	1-0	2-0	1	1	W
22/03	Nong Bua Pitchaya Thailand Division 2	0-1	3-1	6	0	W

Nong Bua Pitchaya

LWWLWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Chiangmai United Thailand Division 2	0-0	3-1	13	3	W
11/10	Chanthaburi FC Thailand Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
19/09	PT Satun Thailand Division 2	2-0	4-3	3	4	W
16/09	Uttaradit FC Thailand Division 2	2-0	2-2	5	4	D
12/09	Muang Thong United Thailand Division 2	1-0	1-2	4	2	L
06/09	Kasetsart FC Thailand Division 2	2-0	2-0	9	3	W
23/05	Pattani FC Thailand Division 2	1-1	1-2	4	4	L
16/05	Pattani FC Thailand Division 2	1-1	2-1	6	7	W
09/05	Police Tero FC Thailand Division 2	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	Police Tero FC Thailand Division 2	0-1	1-2	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nakhon Pathom FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nong Bua Pitchaya win (37%). Probabilities: Nakhon Pathom FC 34%, draw 28%, Nong Bua Pitchaya 37%.

How many goals are expected in Nakhon Pathom FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Nakhon Pathom FC 1.26 · Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.32), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom FC vs Nong Bua Pitchaya?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.