Football · Romania Liga 2 · 29/08, 10:00

Prediction: AFC Metalul Buzau vs Chindia Targoviste

Team pages: AFC Metalul Buzau · Chindia Targoviste

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

AFC Metalul Buzau1.41

Chindia Targoviste1.4

1X2

37% 27% 36%

AFC Metalul Buzau Draw Chindia Targoviste

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Metalul Buzau 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Chindia Targoviste 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AFC Metalul Buzau 1–1–0 Chindia Targoviste (2 last)

Chindia Targoviste2-3AFC Metalul Buzau
Chindia Targoviste0-0AFC Metalul Buzau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Metalul Buzau 1596 · Chindia Targoviste 1474

	AFC Metalul Buzau	Draw	Chindia Targoviste
Our model	37%	28%	36%
Market	37%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AFC Metalul Buzau (rating 1596 vs 1474).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Metalul Buzau	Chindia Targoviste
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 0.7	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 5.9	4.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.30

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	2.60 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.83 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
18:03 +13’	2.45	3.20	2.60
22:31 +7’	2.45	3.30▲	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:35 +4’	2.20	3.22	2.94
00:11	2.27▲	3.22	2.83▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Metalul Buzau 1–1–0 Chindia Targoviste

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Romania Liga 2	Chindia Targoviste	2-3 HT 1-2	AFC Metalul Buzau
26/10/24 Romania Liga 2	Chindia Targoviste	0-0 HT 0-0	AFC Metalul Buzau

Standings · Romania Liga 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSM Slatina	4	4	0	0	10	2	12
2	Stiinta Poli Timisoara	4	3	1	0	8	2	10
3	Scolar Resita	4	3	0	1	7	5	9
4	CS Concordia Chiajna	4	3	0	1	8	7	9
5	Gloria Popesti Leordeni	4	2	2	0	9	5	8
6	FC Bacau	4	2	1	1	10	5	7
7	Metaloglobus Bucuresti	4	2	1	1	6	5	7
8	AFC Metalul Buzau	4	2	1	1	4	3	7
9	Chindia Targoviste	4	2	0	2	7	4	6
10	Gloria Bistrita	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
11	Cetate Suceava	4	2	0	2	6	6	6
12	CS Stefanesti	4	2	0	2	4	6	6
13	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
14	ASA Targu Mures	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
15	CS Afumati	4	1	1	2	4	8	4
16	CSC Dumbravita	4	0	3	1	4	5	3
17	FC Bihor Oradea	4	0	3	1	2	4	3
18	CS Dinamo Bucuresti	4	1	0	3	4	9	3
19	CSC 1599 Selimbar	4	0	2	2	4	7	2
20	CSM Satu Mare	4	0	2	2	1	5	2
21	CSA Steaua Bucuresti	4	0	1	3	4	9	1
22	FC Unirea 2004 Slobozia	4	0	1	3	2	7	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Metalul Buzau	Chindia Targoviste
CS Dinamo Bucuresti	1-0 W	1-2 L
CS Afumati	3-1 W	3-0 W
Metaloglobus Bucuresti	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chindia Targoviste (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Metalul Buzau

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	CSM Slatina Romania Liga 2	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
15/08	CS Dinamo Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
08/08	CS Afumati Romania Liga 2	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
01/08	Metaloglobus Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
09/05	FC Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt Romania Liga 2	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
02/05	CSM Slatina Romania Liga 2	0-2	1-3	8	3	L
25/04	Gloria Bistrita Romania Liga 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	CSM Politehnica Iasi Romania Liga 2	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
10/04	Muscelul Campulung Romania Liga 2	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
04/04	ASA Targu Mures Romania Liga 2	2-0	4-1	2	2	W

Chindia Targoviste

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	CS Dinamo Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
15/08	CS Afumati Romania Liga 2	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
09/08	Metaloglobus Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	1-0	3-1	12	3	W
04/08	Stiinta Poli Timisoara Romania Liga 2	0-1	0-1	3	9	L
16/05	ACS Sepsi Romania Liga 2	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
09/05	CS Corvinul Hunedoara Romania Liga 2	0-0	1-0	1	1	W
05/05	FC Bihor Oradea Romania Liga 2	0-2	1-3	2	2	L
01/05	CSA Steaua Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-2	0	5	L
25/04	FC Voluntari Romania Liga 2	0-2	1-2	13	3	L
18/04	ACS Sepsi Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-1	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Metalul Buzau vs Chindia Targoviste?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Metalul Buzau win (37%). Probabilities: AFC Metalul Buzau 37%, draw 27%, Chindia Targoviste 36%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Metalul Buzau vs Chindia Targoviste?

The model expects 2.81 goals (AFC Metalul Buzau 1.41 · Chindia Targoviste 1.4), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Metalul Buzau vs Chindia Targoviste?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.