Football · Romania Liga 2 · 10/10, 10:00

Prediction: AFC Metalul Buzau vs ASA Targu Mures

Team pages: AFC Metalul Buzau · ASA Targu Mures

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

AFC Metalul Buzau1.88

ASA Targu Mures1.11

1X2

54% 24% 21%

AFC Metalul Buzau Draw ASA Targu Mures

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Metalul Buzau 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLLDWW

ASA Targu Mures 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLDWLWDW

Head-to-head

AFC Metalul Buzau 1–1 ASA Targu Mures (2 last)

ASA Targu Mures1-4AFC Metalul Buzau
ASA Targu Mures1-0AFC Metalul Buzau

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Metalul Buzau 1553 · ASA Targu Mures 1521

	AFC Metalul Buzau	Draw	ASA Targu Mures
Our model	54%	25%	21%
Market	54%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Metalul Buzau	ASA Targu Mures
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.2	2.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.70

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +6’	1.65	3.70	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Metalul Buzau 1–0–1 ASA Targu Mures

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Romania Liga 2	ASA Targu Mures	1-4 HT 0-2	AFC Metalul Buzau
28/02/26 Romania Liga 2	ASA Targu Mures	1-0 HT 1-0	AFC Metalul Buzau

Standings · Romania Liga 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CSM Slatina	8	7	1	0	17	5	22
2	Stiinta Poli Timisoara	8	6	2	0	18	7	20
3	Scolar Resita	8	6	0	2	13	8	18
4	FC Bacau	8	4	3	1	19	8	15
5	Chindia Targoviste	8	5	0	3	17	8	15
6	Gloria Popesti Leordeni	8	4	3	1	19	14	15
7	CS Concordia Chiajna	8	5	0	3	17	13	15
8	AFC Metalul Buzau	8	4	2	2	9	7	14
9	CS Afumati	8	4	2	2	12	12	14
10	Cetate Suceava	8	3	3	2	15	11	12
11	Gloria Bistrita	8	4	0	4	12	10	12
12	Metaloglobus Bucuresti	8	3	2	3	11	12	11
13	ASA Targu Mures	8	3	2	3	12	15	11
14	CSM Ramnicu Valcea	8	3	2	3	10	13	11
15	FC Bihor Oradea	8	2	3	3	13	10	9
16	CSC 1599 Selimbar	8	1	3	4	7	14	6
17	CS Stefanesti	8	2	0	6	6	15	6
18	CSA Steaua Bucuresti	8	1	2	5	9	17	5
19	FC Unirea 2004 Slobozia	8	1	1	6	11	12	4
20	CSM Satu Mare	8	0	4	4	3	10	4
21	CSC Dumbravita	8	0	3	5	5	16	3
22	CS Dinamo Bucuresti	8	1	0	7	9	27	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Metalul Buzau	ASA Targu Mures
CS Dinamo Bucuresti	1-0 W	4-3 W
CS Afumati	3-1 W	2-2 D
Metaloglobus Bucuresti	0-0 D	3-2 W
FC Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt	3-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: ASA Targu Mures (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Metalul Buzau

LWDWWLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	CS Concordia Chiajna Romania Liga 2	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
13/09	FC Unirea 2004 Slobozia Romania Liga 2	0-0	2-0	12	3	W
05/09	CSC 1599 Selimbar Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
29/08	Chindia Targoviste Romania Liga 2	1-1	1-3	7	7	L
22/08	CSM Slatina Romania Liga 2	0-1	0-2	7	2	L
15/08	CS Dinamo Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
08/08	CS Afumati Romania Liga 2	0-1	3-1	4	4	W
01/08	Metaloglobus Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
09/05	FC Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt Romania Liga 2	2-0	3-0	7	2	W
02/05	CSM Slatina Romania Liga 2	0-2	1-3	8	3	L

ASA Targu Mures

WWLLDWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	CS Dinamo Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	0-1	4-3	8	6	W
12/09	CS Afumati Romania Liga 2	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
05/09	Metaloglobus Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	2-1	3-2	4	4	W
30/08	Stiinta Poli Timisoara Romania Liga 2	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
22/08	Gloria Bistrita Romania Liga 2	1-0	1-0	5	5	W
15/08	FC Bihor Oradea Romania Liga 2	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
08/08	Cetate Suceava Romania Liga 2	0-1	0-2	10	2	L
01/08	Scolar Resita Romania Liga 2	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
09/05	CS Dinamo Bucuresti Romania Liga 2	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
02/05	FC Ceahlaul Piatra Neamt Romania Liga 2	2-0	4-0	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Metalul Buzau vs ASA Targu Mures?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AFC Metalul Buzau win (54%). Probabilities: AFC Metalul Buzau 54%, draw 24%, ASA Targu Mures 21%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Metalul Buzau vs ASA Targu Mures?

The model expects 2.99 goals (AFC Metalul Buzau 1.88 · ASA Targu Mures 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Metalul Buzau vs ASA Targu Mures?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.