Football · Argentina Nacional B · 01/08, 20:30
Prediction: San Martin SJ vs Atletico Rafaela
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.73Total
San Martin SJ1.14
Atletico Rafaela0.59
1X2
San Martin SJ
Draw
Atletico Rafaela
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
San Martin SJ
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Atletico Rafaela
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Martin SJ
3–1–2
Atletico Rafaela
(6 last)
- Atletico Rafaela1-0San Martin SJ
- Atletico Rafaela0-0San Martin SJ
- San Martin SJ2-1Atletico Rafaela
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Martin SJ 1497 · Atletico Rafaela 1486
| San Martin SJ | Draw | Atletico Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 34% | 18% |
| Market | 49% | 31% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.73 goals · Bet365 line 1.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 79%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours San Martin SJ: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Martin SJ | Atletico Rafaela | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1 | 0.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 5 | 1.8 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.3 | 4.4 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin SJ 3–1–2 Atletico Rafaela
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 1-0 HT 0-0 | San Martin SJ |
| 15/09/24 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Martin SJ |
| 28/04/24 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin SJ | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Atletico Rafaela |
| 29/08/22 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 3-0 HT 2-0 | San Martin SJ |
| 24/07/21 Argentina Nacional B | Atletico Rafaela | 0-2 HT 0-0 | San Martin SJ |
| 12/03/21 Argentina Nacional B | San Martin SJ | 4-2 HT 2-2 | Atletico Rafaela |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32 | 22 | 38 |
| 2 | CA Atlanta | 20 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 15 | 36 |
| 3 | Club Atletico Temperley | 21 | 8 | 10 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 34 |
| 4 | Tristan Suarez | 20 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 33 |
| 5 | Ferrocarril Midland | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 15 | 30 |
| 6 | San Martin de Tucuman | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 15 | 30 |
| 7 | Deportivo Maipu | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 27 | 21 | 29 |
| 8 | Atletico Rafaela | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 27 |
| 9 | San Martin SJ | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 26 |
| 10 | Nueva Chicago | 20 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 26 |
| 11 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 19 | 21 | 25 |
| 12 | Almagro | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 16 | 22 | 25 |
| 13 | Quilmes | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 16 | 24 |
| 14 | CA Colegiales | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 20 | 23 |
| 15 | Chacarita Juniors | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 23 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 20 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 22 |
| 17 | Agropecuario | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 25 | 20 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 19 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Martin SJ | Atletico Rafaela |
|---|---|---|
| Club Atletico Temperley | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Deportivo Maipu | 2-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Almagro | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Patronato Parana | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| CA Colegiales | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: San Martin SJ (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Martin SJ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 05/07 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 20/06 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 8 | W |
| 14/06 | Gimnasia Jujuy Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 13/05 | Platense Argentina Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
Atletico Rafaela
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | Club Atletico Temperley Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 11/07 | Deportivo Maipu Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Almagro Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/06 | Nueva Chicago Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/06 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 31/05 | Quilmes Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Martin SJ vs Atletico Rafaela?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Martin SJ win (49%). Probabilities: San Martin SJ 49%, draw 33%, Atletico Rafaela 19%.
How many goals are expected in San Martin SJ vs Atletico Rafaela?
The model expects 1.73 goals (San Martin SJ 1.14 · Atletico Rafaela 0.59), with a 53% chance of under 1.75 goals.
Will both teams score in San Martin SJ vs Atletico Rafaela?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.