Football · Argentina Nacional B · 08/08, 22:00
Prediction: Quilmes vs Almagro
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.13Total
Quilmes1.54
Almagro0.6
1X2
Quilmes
Draw
Almagro
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 64%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Quilmes
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Almagro
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Quilmes
1–2–3
Almagro
(6 last)
- Almagro1-0Quilmes
- Almagro2-2Quilmes
- Quilmes0-1Almagro
- Quilmes1-1Almagro
- Almagro0-1Quilmes
- Almagro2-1Quilmes
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Quilmes 1464 · Almagro 1524
| Quilmes | Draw | Almagro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 28% | 13% |
| Market | 59% | 27% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.13 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Almagro (rating 1464 vs 1524).
- H2H favours Almagro: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Quilmes | Almagro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/80/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6.6 | 2.5 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 4.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Quilmes 1–2–3 Almagro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Quilmes |
| 31/08/25 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Quilmes |
| 27/04/25 Argentina Nacional B | Quilmes | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Almagro |
| 23/09/22 Argentina Nacional B | Quilmes | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Almagro |
| 11/12/20 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Quilmes |
| 20/10/19 Argentina Nacional B | Almagro | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Quilmes |
Standings · Argentina Nacional B · Primera Nacional 2026, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gimnasia Jujuy | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 25 | 41 |
| 2 | Club Atletico Temperley | 23 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 37 |
| 3 | Tristan Suarez | 21 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 18 | 11 | 36 |
| 4 | CA Atlanta | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 22 | 36 |
| 5 | Ferrocarril Midland | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 23 | 16 | 34 |
| 6 | Deportivo Maipu | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 24 | 32 |
| 7 | Gimnasia y Tiro | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 22 | 31 |
| 8 | Atletico Rafaela | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 19 | 31 |
| 9 | San Martin de Tucuman | 23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 19 | 30 |
| 10 | CA Colegiales | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 21 | 29 |
| 11 | Nueva Chicago | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 20 | 29 |
| 12 | Almagro | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 24 | 29 |
| 13 | San Martin SJ | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 22 | 22 | 27 |
| 14 | Chacarita Juniors | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 23 | 26 |
| 15 | Quilmes | 22 | 6 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 20 | 25 |
| 16 | Patronato Parana | 22 | 4 | 11 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 23 |
| 17 | Agropecuario | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 28 | 23 |
| 18 | CA Guemes | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 36 | 19 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Quilmes | Almagro |
|---|---|---|
| Ferrocarril Midland | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| CA Atlanta | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| San Martin de Tucuman | 0-0 D | 0-3 L |
| Atletico Rafaela | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Agropecuario | 0-0 D | 2-1 W |
| Tristan Suarez | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Almagro (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Quilmes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Patronato Parana Argentina Nacional B |
1-3 | 3-3 | 9 | 8 | D |
| 27/07 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 04/07 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 20/06 | CA Colegiales Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 13/06 | Gimnasia y Tiro Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 07/06 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 31/05 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 17/05 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
Almagro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Ferrocarril Midland Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 9 | D |
| 28/07 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/07 | San Martin de Tucuman Argentina Nacional B |
0-3 | 0-3 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Atletico Rafaela Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 20/06 | CA Atlanta Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Agropecuario Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 8 | W |
| 07/06 | Tristan Suarez Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | CA Guemes Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 12 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Chacarita Juniors Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | San Martin SJ Argentina Nacional B |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Quilmes vs Almagro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Quilmes win (59%). Probabilities: Quilmes 59%, draw 27%, Almagro 13%.
How many goals are expected in Quilmes vs Almagro?
The model expects 2.13 goals (Quilmes 1.54 · Almagro 0.6), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Quilmes vs Almagro?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.