Football · Ukraine Persha Liga · 25/07, 13:00

Prediction: Lokomotiv Kyiv vs FC Chernigiv

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Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Lokomotiv Kyiv1.19

FC Chernigiv0.92

1X2

41% 31% 28%

Lokomotiv Kyiv Draw FC Chernigiv

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lokomotiv Kyiv 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWDWWLD

FC Chernigiv 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLLDL

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Kyiv 0–1 FC Chernigiv (1 last)

Lokomotiv Kyiv0-3FC Chernigiv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lokomotiv Kyiv 1514 · FC Chernigiv 1450

	Lokomotiv Kyiv	Draw	FC Chernigiv
Our model	41%	32%	27%
Market	42%	30%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lokomotiv Kyiv (rating 1514 vs 1450).
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lokomotiv Kyiv	FC Chernigiv
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.6	0.3 / 1.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:46 +27’	2.15	3.00	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lokomotiv Kyiv 0–0–1 FC Chernigiv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/25 Ukraine Druha Liga	Lokomotiv Kyiv	0-3 HT 0-0	FC Chernigiv

Standings · Ukraine Persha Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Viktoriya Sumy	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
2	Nyva Ternopil	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
2	PFC Oleksandria	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
4	Ahrobiznes Volochysk	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FC Chernigiv	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Ingulets Petrovo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Kolos Kovalivka II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Kulykiv-Bilka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Lokomotiv Kyiv	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FC Metalist Kharkiv	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Polissya Zhytomyr II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Prykarpattya Ivano Frankivsk	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	UCSA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FC Probiy Horodenka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	SC Poltava	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	FSC Feniks-Mariupol	1	0	0	1	0	1	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lokomotiv Kyiv

LLWDWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/07	Obolon Kyiv Club Friendly List	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
31/05	FK Kulykiv-Bilka Ukraine Druha Liga	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
16/05	FC Hirnyk Sport Komsomolsk Ukraine Druha Liga	2-0	6-0	6	3	W
06/05	FC Livyi Bereh II Ukraine Druha Liga	2-0	3-0	11	1	W
25/04	Chayka Petropavlovsk Borshchagovka Ukraine Druha Liga	1-1	1-1	2	0	D
18/04	PFC Oleksandria II Ukraine Druha Liga	1-0	1-0	10	4	W
04/04	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Druha Liga	1-0	1-1	3	7	D
29/03	Dinaz Vyshgorod Ukraine Druha Liga	0-0	2-0	9	6	W
22/03	Kolos Kovalivka II Ukraine Druha Liga	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
05/03	FC Kharkiv Ukraine Cup	0-1	0-3	1	1	L

FC Chernigiv

DDLWDLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/06	Ahrobiznes Volochysk Ukraine Persha Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
29/05	Metalurg Zaporizhya Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
26/05	FC Metalist Kharkiv Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
23/05	Ingulets Petrovo Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
20/05	Dynamo Kiev Ukraine Cup	1-1	1-3	1	3	L
09/05	Chernomorets Odessa Ukraine Persha Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
02/05	UCSA Ukraine Persha Liga	1-0	2-0	4	9	W
26/04	Vorskla Poltava Ukraine Persha Liga	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
22/04	FC Kharkiv Ukraine Cup	0-0	0-0	0	2	D
18/04	FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi Ukraine Persha Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lokomotiv Kyiv vs FC Chernigiv?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lokomotiv Kyiv win (41%). Probabilities: Lokomotiv Kyiv 41%, draw 31%, FC Chernigiv 28%.

How many goals are expected in Lokomotiv Kyiv vs FC Chernigiv?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Lokomotiv Kyiv 1.19 · FC Chernigiv 0.92), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lokomotiv Kyiv vs FC Chernigiv?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.