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Football · El Salvador Apertura · 26/07, 02:00

Prediction: CD INCA vs Alianza FC

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
CD INCA1.08
Alianza FC1.71
1X2
23% 26% 51%
CD INCA Draw Alianza FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
CD INCA 5-3-2 (W-D-L)
DDLWWWWLWD
Alianza FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
WWLLDDWWLL
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD INCA 1538 · Alianza FC 1486
CD INCADrawAlianza FC
Our model23%26%51%
Market23%26%51%
Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD INCA (rating 1538 vs 1486).
  • Cards-heavy: 13.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

CD INCAAlianza FC
Goals for / against (FT)1.8 / 11.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)1.4 / 00.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)80/20/0%40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)1 / 3.41.6 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)7 / 0.46.5 / 0.4

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#Team PWL GFGAPts
1 AD Isidro Metapan 000 000
1 Alianza FC 000 000
1 CD Aguila 000 000
1 Atlético Balboa 000 000
1 CD Cacahuatique 000 000
1 CD FAS 000 000
1 Fuerte San Francisco 000 000
1 CD INCA 000 000
1 CD Luis Angel Firpo 000 000
1 Municipal Limeno 000 000
1 CD Platense Zacatecoluca 000 000
1 Inter FA 000 000

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD INCA

DDLWWWWLWD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
31/05 Atletico Balboa
El Salvador Segunda Division
 0-0 1-1 510 D
25/05 Sensunte Cabanas FC
El Salvador Segunda Division
 3-0 4-0 33 W
16/05 Atletico Balboa
El Salvador Segunda Division
 1-0 1-2 56 L
10/05 Atletico Balboa
El Salvador Segunda Division
 1-0 1-0 37 W
01/05 CD Dragon
El Salvador Segunda Division
 – 3-0 –– W
26/04 CD Dragon
El Salvador Segunda Division
 – 2-1 –– W
18/04 CD Adet Aruba
El Salvador Segunda Division
 2-0 2-0 111 W
12/04 CD Neo Pipil
El Salvador Segunda Division
 – 0-2 –– L
05/04 AD Espartano
El Salvador Segunda Division
 – 1-1 –– D
28/03 CD Fuerte Aguilares
El Salvador Segunda Division
 – 3-3 –– D

Alianza FC

WWLLDDWWLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
10/05 CD Aguila
El Salvador Clausura
 0-2 0-2 68 L
06/05 CD Aguila
El Salvador Clausura
 1-2 1-2 25 L
01/05 Fuerte San Francisco
El Salvador Clausura
 1-0 1-0 35 W
26/04 Zacatecoluca FC
El Salvador Clausura
 2-1 4-2 34 W
22/04 AD Isidro Metapan
El Salvador Cup
 0-1 1-1 44 D
19/04 Municipal Limeno
El Salvador Clausura
 0-0 0-0 29 D
16/04 CD Aguila
El Salvador Clausura
 0-1 0-2 67 L
12/04 CD FAS
El Salvador Clausura
 0-1 0-2 512 L
08/04 AD Isidro Metapan
El Salvador Cup
 2-0 3-1 58 W
05/04 CD Hercules
El Salvador Clausura
 1-0 3-2 97 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD INCA vs Alianza FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza FC win (51%). Probabilities: CD INCA 23%, draw 26%, Alianza FC 51%.

How many goals are expected in CD INCA vs Alianza FC?

The model expects 2.78 goals (CD INCA 1.08 · Alianza FC 1.71), with a 57% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD INCA vs Alianza FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.