Football · Argentina Torneo A · 24/07, 20:00

Prediction: Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Club Circulo Deportivo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.79Total

Kimberley Mar del Plata1.41

Club Circulo Deportivo0.38

1X2

63% 27% 10%

Kimberley Mar del Plata Draw Club Circulo Deportivo

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 58%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Kimberley Mar del Plata 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWLDDWW

Club Circulo Deportivo 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DDLDDDLDLW

Head-to-head

Kimberley Mar del Plata 3–1–2 Club Circulo Deportivo (6 last)

Club Circulo Deportivo0-1Kimberley Mar del Plata
Club Circulo Deportivo0-1Kimberley Mar del Plata
Kimberley Mar del Plata0-1Club Circulo Deportivo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kimberley Mar del Plata 1552 · Club Circulo Deportivo 1476

	Kimberley Mar del Plata	Draw	Club Circulo Deportivo
Our model	62%	29%	9%
Market	64%	26%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 1.79 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kimberley Mar del Plata (rating 1552 vs 1476).
H2H favours Kimberley Mar del Plata: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kimberley Mar del Plata	Club Circulo Deportivo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.7	1.1 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X3.50

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 22.02

Under 21.77

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 1.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:02 +5’	1.40	3.50	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Kimberley Mar del Plata 3–1–2 Club Circulo Deportivo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Argentina Torneo A	Club Circulo Deportivo	0-1 HT 0-1	Kimberley Mar del Plata
18/05/25 Argentina Torneo A	Club Circulo Deportivo	0-1 HT 0-1	Kimberley Mar del Plata
16/03/25 Argentina Torneo A	Kimberley Mar del Plata	0-1 HT 0-1	Club Circulo Deportivo
02/06/24 Argentina Torneo A	Club Circulo Deportivo	0-1 HT 0-0	Kimberley Mar del Plata
07/04/24 Argentina Torneo A	Kimberley Mar del Plata	0-1 HT 0-1	Club Circulo Deportivo
02/10/16 Argentina Torneo B	Club Circulo Deportivo	1-1 HT 1-1	Kimberley Mar del Plata

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Olimpo B Blanca	15	7	7	1	11	4	28
2	CA Alvarado	16	7	6	3	19	7	27
3	Kimberley Mar del Plata	15	6	7	2	14	8	25
4	Club Villa Mitre	15	5	7	3	11	5	22
5	Germinal de Rawson	15	4	6	5	7	12	18
6	Sol de Mayo	15	4	5	6	12	15	17
7	Guillermo Brown	15	3	5	7	11	20	14
8	Santamarina Tandil	15	2	7	6	9	15	13
9	Club Circulo Deportivo	15	2	6	7	7	15	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kimberley Mar del Plata	Club Circulo Deportivo
Sol de Mayo	2-1 W	3-1 W
Guillermo Brown	3-0 W	0-1 L
Olimpo B Blanca	0-0 D	1-1 D
CA Alvarado	2-2 D	0-1 L
Santamarina Tandil	0-1 L	0-0 D
Germinal de Rawson	1-0 W	0-0 D
Club Villa Mitre	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kimberley Mar del Plata (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kimberley Mar del Plata

WDWDWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/07	Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-1	7	5	W
28/06	Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
20/06	Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
14/06	CA Alvarado Argentina Torneo A	1-1	2-2	4	1	D
07/06	Santamarina Tandil Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
30/05	Germinal de Rawson Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	9	6	W
25/05	Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	3	9	D
17/05	Club Circulo Deportivo Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	6	9	W
02/05	Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
26/04	Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A	1-1	4-3	7	3	W

Club Circulo Deportivo

DDLDDDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A	2-0	3-1	3	8	W
05/07	Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
28/06	Olimpo B Blanca Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-1	3	7	D
20/06	CA Alvarado Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	6	8	L
14/06	Santamarina Tandil Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
07/06	Germinal de Rawson Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
31/05	Club Villa Mitre Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
17/05	Kimberley Mar del Plata Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	1	9	L
10/05	Sol de Mayo Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
02/05	Guillermo Brown Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Club Circulo Deportivo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kimberley Mar del Plata win (63%). Probabilities: Kimberley Mar del Plata 63%, draw 27%, Club Circulo Deportivo 10%.

How many goals are expected in Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Club Circulo Deportivo?

The model expects 1.79 goals (Kimberley Mar del Plata 1.41 · Club Circulo Deportivo 0.38), with a 58% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Kimberley Mar del Plata vs Club Circulo Deportivo?

The model gives a 58% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.