Football · Panama Liga Prom · 25/07, 03:00
Prediction: SD Atletico Nacional vs San Francisco Reserves
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.93Total
SD Atletico Nacional1.69
San Francisco Reserves1.25
1X2
SD Atletico Nacional
Draw
San Francisco Reserves
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
SD Atletico Nacional
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
San Francisco Reserves
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
SD Atletico Nacional
2–4
San Francisco Reserves
(6 last)
- San Francisco Reserves3-1SD Atletico Nacional
- SD Atletico Nacional2-0San Francisco Reserves
- San Francisco Reserves2-0SD Atletico Nacional
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · SD Atletico Nacional 1531 · San Francisco Reserves 1487
| SD Atletico Nacional | Draw | San Francisco Reserves | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 26% | 27% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Atletico Nacional (rating 1531 vs 1487).
- H2H favours San Francisco Reserves: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| SD Atletico Nacional | San Francisco Reserves | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/44/22% | 38/13/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.9 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Atletico Nacional 2–0–4 San Francisco Reserves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Panama Liga Prom | San Francisco Reserves | 3-1 HT 2-0 | SD Atletico Nacional |
| 06/02/26 Panama Liga Prom | SD Atletico Nacional | 2-0 HT 1-0 | San Francisco Reserves |
| 12/04/25 Panama Liga Prom | San Francisco Reserves | 2-0 HT 1-0 | SD Atletico Nacional |
| 23/01/25 Panama Liga Prom | SD Atletico Nacional | 1-3 | San Francisco Reserves |
| 18/10/24 Panama Liga Prom | SD Atletico Nacional | 0-1 HT 0-0 | San Francisco Reserves |
| 27/07/24 Panama Liga Prom | San Francisco Reserves | 2-3 HT 2-1 | SD Atletico Nacional |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | SD Atletico Nacional | San Francisco Reserves |
|---|---|---|
| Aguilas de la U | 0-0 D | 1-3 L |
| Udelas FC | 3-3 D | 0-2 L |
| CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves | 4-3 W | 0-0 D |
| Union Cocle Reserves | 3-2 W | 0-3 L |
| Herrera FC Reserves | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Bocas | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| La Familia FC | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Veraguas United Reserves | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 1 L | 3 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: SD Atletico Nacional (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
SD Atletico Nacional
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05 | Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 25/04 | San Francisco Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 17/04 | Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom |
0-3 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 10/04 | CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
2-0 | 4-3 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 01/04 | Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 27/03 | Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 22/03 | Bocas Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 13/03 | La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/03 | Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
3-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 27/02 | Rayados de Chiriqui Panama Liga Prom |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
San Francisco Reserves
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04 | Union Cocle Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 25/04 | SD Atletico Nacional Panama Liga Prom |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | CA Independiente de la Chorrera Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Aguilas de la U Panama Liga Prom |
1-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 9 | L |
| 05/04 | Udelas FC Panama Liga Prom |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 28/03 | CD Universitario Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 21/03 | Herrera FC Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 13/03 | Bocas Panama Liga Prom |
3-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 05/03 | La Familia FC Panama Liga Prom |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 28/02 | Veraguas United Reserves Panama Liga Prom |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in SD Atletico Nacional vs San Francisco Reserves?
According to our model, the most likely result is a SD Atletico Nacional win (47%). Probabilities: SD Atletico Nacional 47%, draw 26%, San Francisco Reserves 27%.
How many goals are expected in SD Atletico Nacional vs San Francisco Reserves?
The model expects 2.93 goals (SD Atletico Nacional 1.69 · San Francisco Reserves 1.25), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in SD Atletico Nacional vs San Francisco Reserves?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.