Football · Malaysia Super League · 17/10, 14:15

Prediction: Selangor vs Pulau Pinang

Team pages: Selangor · Pulau Pinang

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Selangor2.63

Pulau Pinang0.88

1X2

74% 16% 10%

Selangor Draw Pulau Pinang

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Selangor 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWWW

Pulau Pinang 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLDWLLDW

Head-to-head

Selangor 5–1–0 Pulau Pinang (6 last)

Selangor4-0Pulau Pinang
Pulau Pinang1-5Selangor
Selangor1-0Pulau Pinang
Pulau Pinang1-1Selangor
Pulau Pinang0-1Selangor
Selangor4-1Pulau Pinang

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Selangor 1608 · Pulau Pinang 1451

	Selangor	Draw	Pulau Pinang
Our model	74%	17%	9%
Market	75%	15%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Selangor (rating 1608 vs 1451).
H2H favours Selangor: 5-1-0.
High corners: 15.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Selangor	Pulau Pinang
Goals for / against (FT)	3.7 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.1	0.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 8.7	2.4 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.00

29.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.98

2 (+2)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.18 → 1.22▲	Bet365 1.22
X	6.50 → 6.00▼	Bet365 6.00
2	10.00 → 9.00▼	Bet365 9.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
11:18 +2’	1.18	6.50	10.00
15:52 +7’	1.22▲	6.00▼	9.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Selangor 5–1–0 Pulau Pinang

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Malaysia Super League	Selangor	4-0 HT 3-0	Pulau Pinang
07/12/25 Malaysia Super League	Pulau Pinang	1-5 HT 1-3	Selangor
02/02/25 Malaysia Challenge Cup	Selangor	1-0 HT 0-0	Pulau Pinang
25/01/25 Malaysia Super League	Pulau Pinang	1-1 HT 0-1	Selangor
19/01/25 Malaysia Challenge Cup	Pulau Pinang	0-1 HT 0-1	Selangor
27/07/24 Malaysia Super League	Selangor	4-1 HT 1-0	Pulau Pinang

Standings · Malaysia Super League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Johor Darul Takzim	5	5	0	0	25	0	15
2	Kuching City FC	5	4	0	1	15	4	12
3	Selangor	4	4	0	0	13	3	12
4	Sabah FC	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
5	DPMM FC	4	2	0	2	3	5	6
6	Kuala Lumpur City	5	2	0	3	4	13	6
7	Terengganu	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
8	Negeri Sembilan	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
9	Pulau Pinang	4	1	1	2	3	5	4
10	Melaka FC	4	1	0	3	5	9	3
11	Star City	4	0	2	2	4	13	2
12	Kelantan Red Warrior	5	0	0	5	4	24	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Selangor	Pulau Pinang
Terengganu	3-0 W	0-0 D
Kelantan Red Warrior	4-1 W	3-2 W
PDRM	6-0 W	1-1 D
Sabah FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Star City	4-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Selangor (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Selangor

WWDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Kuala Lumpur City Malaysia Super League	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
06/09	Melaka FC Malaysia Super League	1-0	3-2	7	4	W
28/08	Terengganu Malaysia Super League	0-0	3-0	7	3	W
22/08	Kelantan Red Warrior Malaysia Super League	2-0	4-1	14	3	W
17/05	PDRM Malaysia Super League	4-0	6-0	–	–	W
02/05	Pulau Pinang Malaysia Super League	3-0	4-0	7	1	W
24/04	Kelantan The Real Warriors Malaysia Super League	3-0	6-0	7	1	W
11/04	Sabah FC Malaysia Super League	1-1	1-1	12	3	D
15/03	Kuala Lumpur City Malaysia Super League	1-0	3-2	5	7	W
08/03	Star City Malaysia Super League	2-0	4-0	13	3	W

Pulau Pinang

LDDLDWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Kelantan Red Warrior Malaysia Super League	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
05/09	Terengganu Malaysia Super League	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
28/08	Sabah FC Malaysia Super League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
23/08	DPMM FC Malaysia Super League	0-0	0-1	10	5	L
15/05	DPMM FC Malaysia Super League	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
08/05	PDRM Malaysia Super League	1-1	1-1	13	3	D
02/05	Selangor Malaysia Super League	0-3	0-4	4	1	L
26/04	Sabah FC Malaysia Super League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
11/04	Star City Malaysia Super League	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
14/03	Kuching City FC Malaysia Super League	0-1	0-1	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Selangor vs Pulau Pinang?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Selangor win (74%). Probabilities: Selangor 74%, draw 16%, Pulau Pinang 10%.

How many goals are expected in Selangor vs Pulau Pinang?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Selangor 2.63 · Pulau Pinang 0.88), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Selangor vs Pulau Pinang?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.