Football · Republic of Ireland FAI Cup · 14/08, 20:45
Prediction: UCD vs Derry City
Team pages: UCD · Derry City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
UCD0.81
Derry City2.07
1X2
UCD
Draw
Derry City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
0-2
Recent form · 10 last
UCD
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Derry City
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
UCD
0–6
Derry City
(6 last)
- Derry City6-0UCD
- UCD0-5Derry City
- Derry City4-1UCD
- UCD0-4Derry City
- Derry City3-0UCD
- UCD0-1Derry City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · UCD 1519 · Derry City 1476
| UCD | Draw | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 13% | 22% | 66% |
| Market | 13% | 21% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours UCD (rating 1519 vs 1476).
- H2H favours Derry City: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| UCD | Derry City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.9 | 2.1 / 6.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 3.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · UCD 0–0–6 Derry City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/23 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 6-0 HT 1-0 | UCD |
| 06/09/23 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | UCD | 0-5 HT 0-3 | Derry City |
| 19/05/23 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 4-1 HT 1-0 | UCD |
| 06/03/23 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | UCD | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Derry City |
| 02/09/22 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | Derry City | 3-0 HT 1-0 | UCD |
| 24/06/22 Republic of Ireland Premier Division | UCD | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Derry City |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
UCD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 03/08 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 31/07 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 24/07 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-2 | 5-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/07 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland FAI Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 10/07 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 0-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 04/07 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 26/06 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 19/06 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
3-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
Derry City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Sligo Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | St Patricks Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 30/07 | HNK Rijeka UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 23/07 | HNK Rijeka UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Tolka Rovers Republic of Ireland FAI Intermediate Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 16/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 09/07 | CSKA Sofia UEFA Europa League Qualifying |
1-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/07 | Waterford FC Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/06 | Drogheda United Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 22/06 | Shamrock Rovers Republic of Ireland Premier Division |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in UCD vs Derry City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Derry City win (66%). Probabilities: UCD 13%, draw 21%, Derry City 66%.
How many goals are expected in UCD vs Derry City?
The model expects 2.88 goals (UCD 0.81 · Derry City 2.07), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Derry City?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.