Football · Argentina Torneo A · 26/07, 20:00

Prediction: Independiente Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Las Parejas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.57Total

Independiente Chivilcoy0.67

Sportivo Las Parejas0.89

1X2

26% 35% 39%

Independiente Chivilcoy Draw Sportivo Las Parejas

Markets

Under 1.5 goals 52% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

Independiente Chivilcoy 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDDDLLDL

Sportivo Las Parejas 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWDDDL

Head-to-head

Independiente Chivilcoy 2–4 Sportivo Las Parejas (6 last)

Sportivo Las Parejas1-0Independiente Chivilcoy
Independiente Chivilcoy1-0Sportivo Las Parejas
Sportivo Las Parejas0-1Independiente Chivilcoy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Independiente Chivilcoy 1455 · Sportivo Las Parejas 1520

	Independiente Chivilcoy	Draw	Sportivo Las Parejas
Our model	25%	38%	37%
Market	27%	33%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 1.57 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Las Parejas (rating 1455 vs 1520).
H2H favours Sportivo Las Parejas: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Independiente Chivilcoy	Sportivo Las Parejas
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.1	3.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.5	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.30

X2.75

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.93

Under 1.751.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:50 +9’	3.30	2.75	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Independiente Chivilcoy 2–0–4 Sportivo Las Parejas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Las Parejas	1-0 HT 0-0	Independiente Chivilcoy
05/07/25 Argentina Torneo A	Independiente Chivilcoy	1-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Las Parejas
04/05/25 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Las Parejas	0-1 HT 0-1	Independiente Chivilcoy
07/07/24 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Las Parejas	2-1 HT 1-1	Independiente Chivilcoy
11/05/24 Argentina Torneo A	Independiente Chivilcoy	2-4 HT 2-2	Sportivo Las Parejas
15/10/23 Argentina Torneo A	Sportivo Las Parejas	4-1 HT 1-1	Independiente Chivilcoy

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sportivo Belgrano	18	7	9	2	21	9	30
2	CA Douglas Haig	17	8	4	5	20	14	28
3	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	17	7	5	5	15	10	26
4	Defensores de Belgrano VR	17	7	5	5	22	18	26
5	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	17	7	4	6	27	25	25
6	Sportivo Las Parejas	17	5	8	4	11	12	23
7	Escobar FC	18	6	4	8	21	29	22
8	Independiente Chivilcoy	17	4	6	7	14	21	18
9	Gimnasia y Esgrima	17	4	5	8	12	17	17
10	Club Atlético El Linqueño	17	4	4	9	13	21	16

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Independiente Chivilcoy	Sportivo Las Parejas
Club Atlético El Linqueño	1-2 L	1-0 W
Sportivo Belgrano	1-1 D	0-0 D
CA Douglas Haig	0-4 L	0-0 D
Defensores de Belgrano VR	0-2 L	1-1 D
Gimnasia y Esgrima	0-0 D	1-0 W
Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy	0-0 D	0-0 D
CA 9 de Julio Rafaela	2-2 D	2-2 D
Escobar FC	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 5 D 3 L	3 W 5 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Las Parejas (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Independiente Chivilcoy

WLDDDDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-2	5	8	L
05/07	Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-1	4	2	D
28/06	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-4	4	1	L
21/06	Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-2	2	11	L
14/06	Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
07/06	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
31/05	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	0-1	2-2	4	5	D
24/05	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	0	1	D
17/05	Sportivo Las Parejas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
09/05	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	6	7	W

Sportivo Las Parejas

WWWDDWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	CA Timbuense Argentina Copa Santa Fe	0-0	1-3	7	6	L
12/07	Sportivo Belgrano Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
05/07	CA Douglas Haig Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
27/06	Defensores de Belgrano VR Argentina Torneo A	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
21/06	Gimnasia y Esgrima Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	9	5	W
13/06	Gimnasia Y Esgrima De Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
07/06	CA 9 de Julio Rafaela Argentina Torneo A	1-1	2-2	5	8	D
30/05	Escobar FC Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	8	4	W
24/05	Club Atlético El Linqueño Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
17/05	Independiente Chivilcoy Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	13	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Independiente Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Las Parejas?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportivo Las Parejas win (39%). Probabilities: Independiente Chivilcoy 26%, draw 35%, Sportivo Las Parejas 39%.

How many goals are expected in Independiente Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Las Parejas?

The model expects 1.57 goals (Independiente Chivilcoy 0.67 · Sportivo Las Parejas 0.89), with a 56% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Independiente Chivilcoy vs Sportivo Las Parejas?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.