Football · Argentina Torneo A · 26/07, 20:30

Prediction: San Martin Formosa vs CA Bartolome Mitre

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.19Total

San Martin Formosa1.48

CA Bartolome Mitre0.7

1X2

55% 28% 17%

San Martin Formosa Draw CA Bartolome Mitre

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

San Martin Formosa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWWDL

CA Bartolome Mitre 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWDDLW

Head-to-head

San Martin Formosa 1–1–1 CA Bartolome Mitre (3 last)

CA Bartolome Mitre2-0San Martin Formosa
CA Bartolome Mitre1-1San Martin Formosa
San Martin Formosa1-0CA Bartolome Mitre

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Martin Formosa 1535 · CA Bartolome Mitre 1533

	San Martin Formosa	Draw	CA Bartolome Mitre
Our model	55%	29%	16%
Market	55%	28%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Martin Formosa	CA Bartolome Mitre
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	1 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5	2.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.25

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:52

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.61▼	Bet365 1.61
X	3.10 → 3.25▲	Bet365 3.25
2	4.33 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
15:14 +1’	1.75	3.10	4.33
16:48 +5’	1.61▼	3.25▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Martin Formosa 1–1–1 CA Bartolome Mitre

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Argentina Torneo A	CA Bartolome Mitre	2-0 HT 0-0	San Martin Formosa
01/06/25 Argentina Torneo A	CA Bartolome Mitre	1-1 HT 0-0	San Martin Formosa
30/03/25 Argentina Torneo A	San Martin Formosa	1-0 HT 0-0	CA Bartolome Mitre

Standings · Argentina Torneo A · Torneo Federal A 2026, Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Martin Formosa	15	8	3	4	24	19	27
2	CA Bartolome Mitre	15	7	5	3	13	6	26
3	Sol de America de Formosa	15	8	2	5	18	12	26
4	CA Sarmiento de la Banda	15	7	3	5	16	14	24
5	Juventud Antoniana	15	6	4	5	16	11	22
6	Defensores Puerto Vilelas	16	6	1	9	21	26	19
7	Boca Unidos	15	5	3	7	19	22	18
8	Tucuman Central	15	5	1	9	13	18	16
9	Sarmiento de Resistencia	15	2	6	7	10	22	12

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Martin Formosa	CA Bartolome Mitre
CA Sarmiento de la Banda	0-2 L	0-1 L
Juventud Antoniana	0-0 D	0-0 D
Sol de America de Formosa	2-1 W	0-0 D
Sarmiento de Resistencia	3-0 W	2-0 W
Boca Unidos	1-3 L	1-2 L
Tucuman Central	3-2 W	1-0 W
Defensores Puerto Vilelas	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Martin Formosa

WWLWWLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
05/07	Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
28/06	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
21/06	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
14/06	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	0-1	1-3	14	4	L
07/06	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	0-1	3-2	4	9	W
25/05	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-1	3-2	6	8	W
17/05	CA Bartolome Mitre Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-2	8	5	L
10/05	CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A	1-1	4-2	3	6	W
03/05	Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A	1-0	3-0	2	6	W

CA Bartolome Mitre

DWWWLWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	0-0	1-0	8	3	W
28/06	CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
20/06	Juventud Antoniana Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
14/06	Sol de America de Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
06/06	Sarmiento de Resistencia Argentina Torneo A	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/05	Boca Unidos Argentina Torneo A	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
25/05	Tucuman Central Argentina Torneo A	1-0	1-0	3	7	W
17/05	San Martin Formosa Argentina Torneo A	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
10/05	Defensores Puerto Vilelas Argentina Torneo A	1-1	3-1	5	6	W
26/04	CA Sarmiento de la Banda Argentina Torneo A	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Martin Formosa vs CA Bartolome Mitre?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Martin Formosa win (55%). Probabilities: San Martin Formosa 55%, draw 28%, CA Bartolome Mitre 17%.

How many goals are expected in San Martin Formosa vs CA Bartolome Mitre?

The model expects 2.19 goals (San Martin Formosa 1.48 · CA Bartolome Mitre 0.7), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in San Martin Formosa vs CA Bartolome Mitre?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.