Football · Thailand Premier League · 24/10, 14:00
Prediction: BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai Utd
Team pages: BG Pathum United · Chiangrai Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
BG Pathum United1.56
Chiangrai Utd0.71
1X2
BG Pathum United
Draw
Chiangrai Utd
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
BG Pathum United
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Chiangrai Utd
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
BG Pathum United
2–2–2
Chiangrai Utd
(6 last)
- BG Pathum United2-2Chiangrai Utd
- Chiangrai Utd1-0BG Pathum United
- Chiangrai Utd1-0BG Pathum United
- BG Pathum United2-0Chiangrai Utd
- Chiangrai Utd2-3BG Pathum United
- BG Pathum United2-2Chiangrai Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · BG Pathum United 1493 · Chiangrai Utd 1502
| BG Pathum United | Draw | Chiangrai Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 28% | 16% |
| Market | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| BG Pathum United | Chiangrai Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 6.1 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · BG Pathum United 2–2–2 Chiangrai Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 Thailand Premier League | BG Pathum United | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Chiangrai Utd |
| 21/09/25 Thailand Premier League | Chiangrai Utd | 1-0 HT 1-0 | BG Pathum United |
| 18/01/25 Thailand Premier League | Chiangrai Utd | 1-0 HT 1-0 | BG Pathum United |
| 28/08/24 Thailand Premier League | BG Pathum United | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Chiangrai Utd |
| 06/04/24 Thailand Premier League | Chiangrai Utd | 2-3 HT 1-3 | BG Pathum United |
| 28/12/23 Thailand Premier League | BG Pathum United | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Chiangrai Utd |
Standings · Thailand Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buriram United | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 13 |
| 2 | Prachuap FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 3 | Port FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Ratchaburi FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Uthai Thani FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Bangkok United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 7 | Rayong FC | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| 8 | Ayutthaya United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Sisaket United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | BG Pathum United | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 6 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 6 |
| 12 | Chiangrai Utd | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 13 | Lamphun Warrior FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| 14 | Pattani FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 15 | Rasi Salai United | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 1 |
| 16 | Chonburi | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | BG Pathum United | Chiangrai Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Sisaket United | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Bangkok United | 2-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Prachuap FC | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: BG Pathum United (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
BG Pathum United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Sisaket United Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | Ayutthaya United Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 20/09 | Bangkok United Thailand Premier League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Rasi Salai United Thailand Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 04/09 | Pattani FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Prachuap FC Thailand Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Muang Thong United Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 15 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Port FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 04/04 | Kanchanaburi Power Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
Chiangrai Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 11/10 | Prachuap FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 19/09 | Sisaket United Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | Buriram United Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Chonburi Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Uthai Thani FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Lamphun Warrior FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Bangkok United Thailand Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Sukhothai FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a BG Pathum United win (57%). Probabilities: BG Pathum United 57%, draw 26%, Chiangrai Utd 16%.
How many goals are expected in BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai Utd?
The model expects 2.27 goals (BG Pathum United 1.56 · Chiangrai Utd 0.71), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai Utd?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.