Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 25/10, 12:00

Prediction: AD Marco 09 vs AD Fafe

Team pages: AD Marco 09 · AD Fafe

Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.99Total
AD Marco 090.95
AD Fafe1.04
1X2
32% 31% 37%
AD Marco 09 Draw AD Fafe
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
AD Marco 09 5-3-2 (W-D-L)
DWWDWLWDWL
AD Fafe 3-4-3 (W-D-L)
WLLDDWDWLD
Head-to-head
AD Marco 09 1–3–0 AD Fafe (4 last)
  • AD Marco 091-0AD Fafe
  • AD Fafe1-1AD Marco 09
  • AD Marco 091-1AD Fafe
  • AD Fafe0-0AD Marco 09
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AD Marco 09 1533 · AD Fafe 1524
AD Marco 09DrawAD Fafe
Our model31%34%36%
Market33%28%38%
Estimated total (ours) 1.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

AD Marco 09AD Fafe
Goals for / against (FT)1 / 0.71.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)0.2 / 0.30.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)20/60/20%30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)2.4 / 4.32.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)5.1 / 0.34.8 / 0.6

Head-to-head (H2H) · AD Marco 09 1–3–0 AD Fafe

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DateHomeScoreAway
18/04/26
Portugal Liga 3
AD Marco 091-0
HT 0-0
AD Fafe
15/03/26
Portugal Liga 3
AD Fafe1-1
HT 1-0
AD Marco 09
07/12/25
Portugal Liga 3
AD Marco 091-1
HT 1-0
AD Fafe
24/08/25
Portugal Liga 3
AD Fafe0-0
HT 0-0
AD Marco 09

Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Paredes 7511 15716
2 Leca 7313 9910
3 AD Marco 09 6312 6510
4 SC Vianense 6231 989
5 AD Fafe 6231 1069
6 Varzim 6303 979
7 Pacos Ferreira 7223 7108
8 Sao Joao Ver 6132 576
9 Guimaraes B 6123 465
10 Trofense 7124 4135

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentAD Marco 09AD Fafe
Leca 0-2 L 3-0 W
Guimaraes B 1-0 W 1-1 D
Sao Joao Ver 0-0 D 3-1 W
SC Vianense 2-0 W 0-0 D
Paredes 2-2 D 1-2 L
Braga B 1-0 W 0-0 D
Record vs common 3 W 2 D 1 L 2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: AD Marco 09 (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AD Marco 09

DWWDWLWDWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
10/10 Leca
Portugal Liga 3
0-1 0-2 83 L
12/09 Guimaraes B
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 1-0 54 W
06/09 Sao Joao Ver
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 34 D
23/08 SC Vianense
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 2-0 37 W
16/08 Varzim
Portugal Liga 3
0-2 1-2 21 L
09/08 Pacos Ferreira
Portugal Liga 3
1-0 2-1 36 W
03/05 Paredes
Portugal Liga 3
1-0 2-2 17 D
26/04 Braga B
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 1-0 45 W
18/04 AD Fafe
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 1-0 106 W
12/04 Sao Joao Ver
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 411 D

AD Fafe

WLLDDWDWLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
11/10 Trofense
Portugal Liga 3
0-1 2-2 45 D
13/09 Paredes
Portugal Liga 3
0-1 1-2 77 L
06/09 Leca
Portugal Liga 3
1-0 3-0 04 W
21/08 Guimaraes B
Portugal Liga 3
1-1 1-1 67 D
16/08 Sao Joao Ver
Portugal Liga 3
1-0 3-1 52 W
09/08 SC Vianense
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 74 D
03/05 Braga B
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 28 D
28/04 Sao Joao Ver
Portugal Liga 3
1-1 1-2 73 L
18/04 AD Marco 09
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-1 56 L
11/04 AD Sanjoanense
Portugal Liga 3
3-0 3-2 18 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AD Marco 09 vs AD Fafe?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AD Fafe win (37%). Probabilities: AD Marco 09 32%, draw 31%, AD Fafe 37%.

How many goals are expected in AD Marco 09 vs AD Fafe?

The model expects 1.99 goals (AD Marco 09 0.95 · AD Fafe 1.04), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AD Marco 09 vs AD Fafe?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.