Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 25/10, 16:00

Prediction: CF Os Belenenses vs Sporting Covilha

Team pages: CF Os Belenenses · Sporting Covilha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

CF Os Belenenses1.92

Sporting Covilha0.78

1X2

64% 22% 14%

CF Os Belenenses Draw Sporting Covilha

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

CF Os Belenenses 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWWWD

Sporting Covilha 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWDLLDD

Head-to-head

CF Os Belenenses 2–2–0 Sporting Covilha (4 last)

Sporting Covilha0-4CF Os Belenenses
CF Os Belenenses3-0Sporting Covilha
CF Os Belenenses2-2Sporting Covilha
Sporting Covilha2-2CF Os Belenenses

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Os Belenenses 1624 · Sporting Covilha 1465

	CF Os Belenenses	Draw	Sporting Covilha
Our model	63%	23%	13%
Market	64%	21%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CF Os Belenenses (rating 1624 vs 1465).
H2H favours CF Os Belenenses: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Os Belenenses	Sporting Covilha
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 0.9	0.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.20

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.42
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 9.79 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:27 +13’	1.40	4.20	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:14 +87’	1.42	3.72	9.79

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Os Belenenses 2–2–0 Sporting Covilha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/12/25 Portugal Liga 3	Sporting Covilha	0-4 HT 0-2	CF Os Belenenses
11/10/25 Portugal Liga 3	CF Os Belenenses	3-0 HT 2-0	Sporting Covilha
13/12/24 Portugal Liga 3	CF Os Belenenses	2-2 HT 0-2	Sporting Covilha
01/09/24 Portugal Liga 3	Sporting Covilha	2-2 HT 1-1	CF Os Belenenses

Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CF Os Belenenses	6	5	1	0	15	4	16
2	Atletico CP Lisbon	6	4	1	1	12	4	13
3	UD Oliveirense	7	2	4	1	9	9	10
4	CD Mafra	7	2	3	2	14	10	9
5	Caldas SC	7	2	2	3	9	12	8
6	UD Santarem	6	2	1	3	6	10	7
7	Louletano DC	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
8	Sporting Covilha	6	1	3	2	4	6	6
9	Lusitano GC Evora	7	1	3	3	6	10	6
10	GD Vitoria de Sernache	6	1	1	4	4	13	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Os Belenenses	Sporting Covilha
CD Mafra	2-2 D	0-1 L
Atletico CP Lisbon	1-0 W	0-3 L
GD Vitoria de Sernache	3-1 W	0-0 D
UD Santarem	5-0 W	2-0 W
Caldas SC	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CF Os Belenenses (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CF Os Belenenses

DDWWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	CD Mafra Portugal Liga 3	1-0	2-2	1	1	D
13/09	Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
06/09	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Liga 3	1-0	3-1	6	6	W
22/08	UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3	3-0	5-0	4	2	W
15/08	Louletano DC Portugal Liga 3	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
08/08	Caldas SC Portugal Liga 3	1-0	1-0	7	1	W
16/05	CD Mafra Portugal Liga 3	0-0	3-1	2	3	W
10/05	Varzim Portugal Liga 3	1-0	2-1	6	3	W
02/05	UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3	1-1	1-1	12	5	D
26/04	Amarante Portugal Liga 3	1-1	2-2	6	4	D

Sporting Covilha

WLDDWDLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	UD Oliveirense Portugal Liga 3	0-0	0-0	0	8	D
12/09	Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3	1-1	2-2	1	4	D
05/09	CD Mafra Portugal Liga 3	0-0	0-1	3	8	L
22/08	Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3	0-0	0-3	10	6	L
16/08	GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Liga 3	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
08/08	UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
01/05	Amora Portugal Liga 3	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
25/04	Caldas SC Portugal Liga 3	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
18/04	Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
12/04	Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3	1-0	2-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Os Belenenses vs Sporting Covilha?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CF Os Belenenses win (64%). Probabilities: CF Os Belenenses 64%, draw 22%, Sporting Covilha 14%.

How many goals are expected in CF Os Belenenses vs Sporting Covilha?

The model expects 2.7 goals (CF Os Belenenses 1.92 · Sporting Covilha 0.78), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Os Belenenses vs Sporting Covilha?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.