Football · Portugal Liga 3 · 05/09, 19:30

Prediction: Varzim vs Paredes

Team pages: Varzim · Paredes

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.38Total
Varzim1.25
Paredes1.13
1X2
38% 30% 32%
Varzim Draw Paredes
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Varzim 4-2-4 (W-D-L)
LLWDLLDWWW
Paredes 3-3-4 (W-D-L)
DLLWDLDWWL
Head-to-head
Varzim 1–2–1 Paredes (4 last)
  • Paredes0-0Varzim
  • Varzim2-2Paredes
  • Paredes1-0Varzim
  • Varzim1-0Paredes
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varzim 1537 · Paredes 1515
VarzimDrawParedes
Our model38%30%32%
Market38%30%32%
Estimated total (ours) 2.38 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

  • Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

VarzimParedes
Goals for / against (FT)1.3 / 1.21.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)0.8 / 0.70.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/30/30%30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)1.7 / 4.22.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)4.7 / 0.35.7 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Varzim 121 Paredes

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DateHomeScoreAway
13/12/25
Portugal Liga 3
Paredes0-0
HT 0-0
Varzim
12/09/25
Portugal Liga 3
Varzim2-2
HT 0-1
Paredes
12/03/23
Portugal Liga 3
Paredes1-0
HT 1-0
Varzim
02/12/22
Portugal Liga 3
Varzim1-0
HT 0-0
Paredes

Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group A

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Varzim 3300 729
2 AD Marco 09 3201 536
2 Paredes 3201 536
4 AD Fafe 3120 425
5 Guimaraes B 3111 444
6 SC Vianense 3111 224
7 Leca 3111 344
8 Trofense 3102 133
9 Sao Joao Ver 3012 251
10 Pacos Ferreira 3003 270

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentVarzimParedes
Pacos Ferreira 4-1 W 1-0 W
AD Marco 09 2-1 W 2-2 D
Guimaraes B 2-2 D 3-1 W
Record vs common 2 W 1 D 0 L 2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Varzim (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Varzim

LLWDLLDWWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
22/08 Pacos Ferreira
Portugal Liga 3
2-1 4-1 45 W
16/08 AD Marco 09
Portugal Liga 3
2-0 2-1 31 W
09/08 Trofense
Portugal Liga 3
1-0 1-0 64 W
16/05 UD Santarem
Portugal Liga 3
2-1 2-2 66 D
10/05 CF Os Belenenses
Portugal Liga 3
0-1 1-2 63 L
03/05 Academica
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-1 17 L
25/04 Guimaraes B
Portugal Liga 3
1-1 2-2 64 D
18/04 Trofense
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 1-0 49 W
11/04 CD Mafra
Portugal Liga 3
0-2 0-2 54 L
04/04 Amarante
Portugal Liga 3
0-1 0-1 17 L

Paredes

DLLWDLDWWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
23/08 Leca
Portugal Liga 3
1-2 1-2 67 L
15/08 Pacos Ferreira
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 1-0 49 W
07/08 Guimaraes B
Portugal Liga 3
2-0 3-1 86 W
03/05 AD Marco 09
Portugal Liga 3
0-1 2-2 67 D
26/04 AD Sanjoanense
Portugal Liga 3
0-1 0-1 44 L
18/04 Sao Joao Ver
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 86 D
12/04 Braga B
Portugal Liga 3
4-0 4-1 52 W
22/03 AD Fafe
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-1 68 L
15/03 Sao Joao Ver
Portugal Liga 3
1-0 1-3 56 L
08/03 AD Fafe
Portugal Liga 3
0-0 0-0 34 D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varzim vs Paredes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varzim win (38%). Probabilities: Varzim 38%, draw 30%, Paredes 32%.

How many goals are expected in Varzim vs Paredes?

The model expects 2.38 goals (Varzim 1.25 · Paredes 1.13), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Varzim vs Paredes?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.