Prediction: CD Mafra vs Sporting Covilha
Team pages: CD Mafra · Sporting Covilha
- CD Mafra2-0Sporting Covilha
- Sporting Covilha0-0CD Mafra
- Sporting Covilha1-2CD Mafra
- CD Mafra3-2Sporting Covilha
- Sporting Covilha2-0CD Mafra
- CD Mafra1-1Sporting Covilha
| CD Mafra | Draw | Sporting Covilha | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Market | 54% | 27% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Mafra (rating 1528 vs 1467).
- H2H favours CD Mafra: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Mafra | Sporting Covilha | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.7 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Mafra 3–2–1 Sporting Covilha
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/25 Portugal Liga 3 | CD Mafra | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sporting Covilha |
| 14/09/25 Portugal Liga 3 | Sporting Covilha | 0-0 HT 0-0 | CD Mafra |
| 24/04/23 Portugal Segunda Liga | Sporting Covilha | 1-2 HT 0-1 | CD Mafra |
| 04/11/22 Portugal Segunda Liga | CD Mafra | 3-2 HT 1-2 | Sporting Covilha |
| 19/03/22 Portugal Segunda Liga | Sporting Covilha | 2-0 HT 0-0 | CD Mafra |
| 31/10/21 Portugal Segunda Liga | CD Mafra | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Sporting Covilha |
Standings · Portugal Liga 3 · Liga 3 26/27, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Atletico CP Lisbon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | UD Oliveirense | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 4 | Lusitano GC Evora | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Louletano DC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 6 | Caldas SC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| 7 | Sporting Covilha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | CD Mafra | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | GD Vitoria de Sernache | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 10 | UD Santarem | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Mafra | Sporting Covilha |
|---|---|---|
| Lusitano GC Evora | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Atletico CP Lisbon | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| GD Vitoria de Sernache | 5-0 W | 0-0 D |
| UD Santarem | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: CD Mafra (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Mafra
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 15/08 | Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Liga 3 |
3-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | CF Os Belenenses Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Academica Portugal Liga 3 |
2-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Guimaraes B Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Trofense Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 19/04 | Amarante Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Varzim Portugal Liga 3 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/04 | UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
Sporting Covilha
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 16/08 | GD Vitoria de Sernache Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 08/08 | UD Santarem Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Amora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Caldas SC Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 18/04 | Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 12/04 | Atletico CP Lisbon Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | SU 1 Dezembro Portugal Liga 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/03 | Lusitano GC Evora Portugal Liga 3 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/03 | SU 1 Dezembro Portugal Liga 3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Mafra vs Sporting Covilha?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Mafra win (54%). Probabilities: CD Mafra 54%, draw 28%, Sporting Covilha 19%.
How many goals are expected in CD Mafra vs Sporting Covilha?
The model expects 2.31 goals (CD Mafra 1.52 · Sporting Covilha 0.79), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Mafra vs Sporting Covilha?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.