Football · Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar · 18/07, 21:30
Prediction: Universitario de Sucre vs Fancesa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.67Total
Universitario de Sucre2.75
Fancesa0.92
1X2
Universitario de Sucre
Draw
Fancesa
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Universitario de Sucre
7-1-2 (W-D-L)
Fancesa
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Universitario de Sucre
5–1–0
Fancesa
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Universitario de Sucre 1599 · Fancesa 1472
| Universitario de Sucre | Draw | Fancesa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| Market | 75% | 15% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Sucre (rating 1599 vs 1472).
- H2H favours Universitario de Sucre: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Universitario de Sucre | Fancesa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.1 | 1.1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.5 | 2.1 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.6 | 5.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario de Sucre 5–1–0 Fancesa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06/26 Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar | Fancesa | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Universitario de Sucre |
| 26/10/25 Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar | Universitario de Sucre | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Fancesa |
| 11/10/25 Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar | Fancesa | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Universitario de Sucre |
| 20/07/25 Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar | Fancesa | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Universitario de Sucre |
| 28/06/25 Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar | Universitario de Sucre | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fancesa |
| 29/09/21 Bolivia Nacional B | Fancesa | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Universitario de Sucre |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Universitario de Sucre | Fancesa |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Sucre | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Atletico Juniors de Yotala | 4-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Universitario de Sucre (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Universitario de Sucre
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Atletico Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 04/07 | Atletico Juniors de Yotala Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 27/06 | Fancesa Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Atletico Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/06 | Flamengo de Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Nacional Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Flamengo de Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Nacional Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 23/11 | Integracion Del Norte San Juan Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-1 | 2-3 | 12 | 7 | L |
| 16/11 | Integracion Del Norte San Juan Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 12 | L |
Fancesa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Atletico Juniors de Yotala Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Atletico Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 27/06 | Universitario de Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 21/06 | Club Atletico Juniors Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Impacto Deportivo Sopachuy Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 31/05 | Atletico Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 24/05 | Club Lions Tomina Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 12 | W |
| 16/05 | Impacto Deportivo Sopachuy Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 26/10 | Universitario de Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Universitario de Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Universitario de Sucre vs Fancesa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario de Sucre win (75%). Probabilities: Universitario de Sucre 75%, draw 15%, Fancesa 9%.
How many goals are expected in Universitario de Sucre vs Fancesa?
The model expects 3.67 goals (Universitario de Sucre 2.75 · Fancesa 0.92), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Universitario de Sucre vs Fancesa?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.