Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 17/10, 13:00
Prediction: Czarni Sosnowiec (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)
Team pages: Czarni Sosnowiec (W) · APLG Gdansk (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.56Total
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)2.78
APLG Gdansk (W)0.78
1X2
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
Draw
APLG Gdansk (W)
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
APLG Gdansk (W)
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
4–1–1
APLG Gdansk (W)
(6 last)
- APLG Gdansk (W)0-2Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
- APLG Gdansk (W)1-0Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
- Czarni Sosnowiec (W)4-0APLG Gdansk (W)
- APLG Gdansk (W)0-0Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
- APLG Gdansk (W)1-4Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
- Czarni Sosnowiec (W)6-0APLG Gdansk (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 1616 · APLG Gdansk (W) 1525
| Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | Draw | APLG Gdansk (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 81% | 11% | 7% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Czarni Sosnowiec (W) (rating 1616 vs 1525).
- H2H favours Czarni Sosnowiec (W): 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | APLG Gdansk (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.4 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 78/0/22% | 44/33/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 6.5 | 2.1 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 4–1–1 APLG Gdansk (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 Poland Cup Women | APLG Gdansk (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) |
| 21/02/26 Poland Ekstraliga Women | APLG Gdansk (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) |
| 09/08/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | APLG Gdansk (W) |
| 10/05/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women | APLG Gdansk (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) |
| 23/04/25 Poland Cup Women | APLG Gdansk (W) | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) |
| 02/11/24 Poland Ekstraliga Women | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | 6-0 HT 4-0 | APLG Gdansk (W) |
Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GKS Katowice (W) | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Gornik Leczna (W) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | APLG Gdansk (W) | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 13 |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin (W) | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 9 | 12 |
| 6 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| 7 | Legia Warsaw (W) | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 19 | 9 |
| 8 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 6 |
| 9 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 5 |
| 10 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 4 |
| 11 | Slask Wroclaw (W) | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 3 |
| 12 | Sleza Wroclaw (W) | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | APLG Gdansk (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw (W) | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| AZS UJ Krakow (W) | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| GKS Katowice (W) | 3-3 D | 0-3 L |
| UKS SMS Lodz (W) | 5-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Gornik Leczna (W) | 4-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Pogon Szczecin (W) | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 3 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Czarni Sosnowiec (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Czarni Sosnowiec (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/08 | GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-3 | 3-3 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 31/07 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Pogon Tczew (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-0 | 8-0 | – | – | W |
APLG Gdansk (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 02/08 | Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 30/05 | GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 09/05 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Czarni Sosnowiec (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Czarni Sosnowiec (W) win (80%). Probabilities: Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 80%, draw 13%, APLG Gdansk (W) 7%.
How many goals are expected in Czarni Sosnowiec (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Czarni Sosnowiec (W) 2.78 · APLG Gdansk (W) 0.78), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Czarni Sosnowiec (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.