Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 17/10, 12:00

Prediction: Lech Poznan UAM (W) vs Pogon Szczecin (W)

Team pages: Lech Poznan UAM (W) · Pogon Szczecin (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.67Total

Lech Poznan UAM (W)0.96

Pogon Szczecin (W)2.7

1X2

10% 16% 74%

Lech Poznan UAM (W) Draw Pogon Szczecin (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Lech Poznan UAM (W) 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWWLLLDL

Pogon Szczecin (W) 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWLWL

Head-to-head

Lech Poznan UAM (W) 0–2 Pogon Szczecin (W) (2 last)

Pogon Szczecin (W)3-0Lech Poznan UAM (W)
Lech Poznan UAM (W)1-3Pogon Szczecin (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lech Poznan UAM (W) 1437 · Pogon Szczecin (W) 1557

	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	Draw	Pogon Szczecin (W)
Our model	10%	16%	73%
Market	11%	16%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 3.67 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pogon Szczecin (W) (rating 1437 vs 1557).
H2H favours Pogon Szczecin (W): 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	Pogon Szczecin (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.5	2.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/0/67%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.3	3.9 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

18.50

X5.75

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)2.00

2 (-1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
X	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
11:41 +44’	8.50	5.75	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lech Poznan UAM (W) 0–0–2 Pogon Szczecin (W)

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
04/04/26 Poland Ekstraliga Women	Pogon Szczecin (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Lech Poznan UAM (W)
20/09/25 Poland Ekstraliga Women	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	1-3 HT 1-0	Pogon Szczecin (W)

Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	GKS Katowice (W)	6	5	1	0	21	6	16
2	Gornik Leczna (W)	6	5	0	1	17	5	15
3	Czarni Sosnowiec (W)	5	4	1	0	15	3	13
4	APLG Gdansk (W)	7	4	1	2	11	9	13
5	Pogon Szczecin (W)	7	4	0	3	16	9	12
6	AZS UJ Krakow (W)	6	3	1	2	10	10	10
7	Legia Warsaw (W)	7	3	0	4	15	19	9
8	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	7	1	3	3	8	16	6
9	UKS SMS Lodz (W)	6	1	2	3	4	11	5
10	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	6	1	1	4	8	17	4
11	Slask Wroclaw (W)	7	0	3	4	6	15	3
12	Sleza Wroclaw (W)	6	0	1	5	5	16	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lech Poznan UAM (W)	Pogon Szczecin (W)
APLG Gdansk (W)	1-3 L	1-2 L
Slask Wroclaw (W)	2-2 D	5-0 W
Gornik Leczna (W)	0-3 L	1-3 L
Legia Warsaw (W)	3-4 L	2-1 W
Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W)	2-1 W	1-2 L
UKS SMS Lodz (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pogon Szczecin (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lech Poznan UAM (W)

DLLWWLLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	1-3	4	4	L
27/09	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-1	2-2	4	6	D
22/08	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
15/08	Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-3	3-4	5	2	L
08/08	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-2	0-5	6	1	L
01/08	Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	–	2-0	–	–	W
30/05	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
24/05	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-1	1-2	0	0	L
20/05	GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-2	1-4	5	3	L
09/05	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	1-1	4	3	D

Pogon Szczecin (W)

WWWWLWWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
26/09	UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
29/08	APLG Gdansk (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-2	1-2	6	2	L
22/08	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	3-0	5-0	4	3	W
16/08	AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	4-1	6	0	W
08/08	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
01/08	Legia Warsaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-1	2-1	2	2	W
30/05	Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	1-0	10	7	W
23/05	Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
10/05	Pogon Tczew (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lech Poznan UAM (W) vs Pogon Szczecin (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pogon Szczecin (W) win (74%). Probabilities: Lech Poznan UAM (W) 10%, draw 16%, Pogon Szczecin (W) 74%.

How many goals are expected in Lech Poznan UAM (W) vs Pogon Szczecin (W)?

The model expects 3.67 goals (Lech Poznan UAM (W) 0.96 · Pogon Szczecin (W) 2.7), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lech Poznan UAM (W) vs Pogon Szczecin (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.