Football · Poland Ekstraliga Women · 14/11, 13:00
Prediction: Legia Warsaw (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)
Team pages: Legia Warsaw (W) · APLG Gdansk (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.28Total
Legia Warsaw (W)1.99
APLG Gdansk (W)1.3
1X2
Legia Warsaw (W)
Draw
APLG Gdansk (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Legia Warsaw (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
APLG Gdansk (W)
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Legia Warsaw (W) 1482 · APLG Gdansk (W) 1508
| Legia Warsaw (W) | Draw | APLG Gdansk (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 24% | 24% |
| Market | 53% | 24% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Legia Warsaw (W) | APLG Gdansk (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2 | 1.4 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 63/13/25% | 38/63/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.9 | 2.3 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0 | 2.1 / 0.1 |
Standings · Poland Ekstraliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GKS Katowice (W) | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 7 | 25 |
| 2 | Pogon Szczecin (W) | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 12 | 21 |
| 3 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 25 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Gornik Leczna (W) | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 20 |
| 5 | APLG Gdansk (W) | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 15 | 15 |
| 6 | Legia Warsaw (W) | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 14 |
| 7 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 12 |
| 8 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 20 | 10 |
| 9 | Sleza Wroclaw (W) | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 25 | 8 |
| 10 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 21 | 7 |
| 11 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 6 |
| 12 | Slask Wroclaw (W) | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 3 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Legia Warsaw (W) | APLG Gdansk (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Slask Wroclaw (W) | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| AZS UJ Krakow (W) | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Gornik Leczna (W) | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| UKS SMS Lodz (W) | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| GKS Katowice (W) | 0-6 L | 0-3 L |
| Sleza Wroclaw (W) | 5-2 W | 2-2 D |
| Czarni Sosnowiec (W) | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Lech Poznan UAM (W) | 4-3 W | 3-1 W |
| Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Pogon Szczecin (W) | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 4 L | 4 W 3 D 3 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Legia Warsaw (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/11 | Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 31/10 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 18/10 | Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/10 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 26/09 | GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-4 | 0-6 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 29/08 | Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-1 | 5-2 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 22/08 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
3-1 | 4-3 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
3-1 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
APLG Gdansk (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11 | GKS Katowice (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 31/10 | Sleza Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 17/10 | Czarni Sosnowiec (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/10 | Lech Poznan UAM (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 27/09 | Rekord Bielsko-Biala (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Pogon Szczecin (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | UKS SMS Lodz (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Slask Wroclaw (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | AZS UJ Krakow (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 02/08 | Gornik Leczna (W) Poland Ekstraliga Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Legia Warsaw (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Legia Warsaw (W) win (53%). Probabilities: Legia Warsaw (W) 53%, draw 24%, APLG Gdansk (W) 24%.
How many goals are expected in Legia Warsaw (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?
The model expects 3.28 goals (Legia Warsaw (W) 1.99 · APLG Gdansk (W) 1.3), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Legia Warsaw (W) vs APLG Gdansk (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.