Football · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 · 13/08, 00:00
Prediction: GE Bage vs APAFUT
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.87Total
GE Bage1.23
APAFUT0.64
1X2
GE Bage
Draw
APAFUT
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
GE Bage
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
APAFUT
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · GE Bage 1507 · APAFUT 1500
| GE Bage | Draw | APAFUT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 33% | 18% |
| Market | 52% | 27% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| GE Bage | APAFUT | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.5 | 2.7 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.6 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Standings · Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EC Pelotas | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Passo Fundo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Uniao Frederiquense | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Brasil de Pelotas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Aimore RS | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | CE Bento Goncalves | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 5 | Santa Cruz RS | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 8 | Veranopolis | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | APAFUT | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | GE Bage | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Gramadense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Brasil de Farroupilha | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Guarani de Venancio Aires | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | Sport Clube Gaucho | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | GE Gloria | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Lajeadense | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
GE Bage
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | EC Pelotas Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 06/08 | Lajeadense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | Uniao Frederiquense Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 05/07 | Gramadense Brazil Copa Gaucho |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 27/06 | Gramadense Brazil Copa Gaucho |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 17/06 | Brasil de Farroupilha Brazil Copa Gaucho |
1-1 | 2-1 | 18 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Copa Gaucho |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 04/06 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Copa Gaucho |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 28/05 | Brasil de Pelotas Brazil Copa Gaucho |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 12 | L |
| 21/05 | Guarany de Bage Brazil Copa Gaucho |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
APAFUT
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Sport Clube Gaucho Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/08 | CE Bento Goncalves Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 02/08 | Passo Fundo Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 07/12 | Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 04/12 | Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 30/11 | Sao Paulo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 23/11 | Sao Paulo RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 16/11 | Nova Prata RS Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3 |
1-2 | 5-2 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 09/11 | Guarani de Venancio Aires Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3 |
1-2 | 2-4 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 26/10 | Clube 1992 Brazil Campeonato Gaucho 3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in GE Bage vs APAFUT?
According to our model, the most likely result is a GE Bage win (51%). Probabilities: GE Bage 51%, draw 29%, APAFUT 20%.
How many goals are expected in GE Bage vs APAFUT?
The model expects 1.87 goals (GE Bage 1.23 · APAFUT 0.64), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in GE Bage vs APAFUT?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.