Football · USA USL Cup · 13/08, 01:00
Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs Hartford Athletic
Team pages: Charlotte Independence · Hartford Athletic
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Charlotte Independence1.26
Hartford Athletic1.18
1X2
Charlotte Independence
Draw
Hartford Athletic
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Charlotte Independence
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Hartford Athletic
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Charlotte Independence
5–1–0
Hartford Athletic
(6 last)
- Hartford Athletic1-2Charlotte Independence
- Hartford Athletic1-2Charlotte Independence
- Charlotte Independence2-0Hartford Athletic
- Charlotte Independence3-2Hartford Athletic
- Charlotte Independence4-0Hartford Athletic
- Hartford Athletic1-1Charlotte Independence
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1535 · Hartford Athletic 1513
| Charlotte Independence | Draw | Hartford Athletic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Charlotte Independence: 5-1-0.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Charlotte Independence | Hartford Athletic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.6 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 2.1 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 3.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 5–1–0 Hartford Athletic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/21 USA USL Championship | Hartford Athletic | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Charlotte Independence |
| 01/10/21 USA USL Championship | Hartford Athletic | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Charlotte Independence |
| 12/09/21 USA USL Championship | Charlotte Independence | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Hartford Athletic |
| 14/06/21 USA USL Championship | Charlotte Independence | 3-2 HT 0-0 | Hartford Athletic |
| 29/09/19 USA USL Championship | Charlotte Independence | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Hartford Athletic |
| 05/05/19 USA USL Championship | Hartford Athletic | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Charlotte Independence |
Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 6
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Charleston Battery | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
| 4 | Greenville Triumph SC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Loudoun United FC | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Richmond Kickers | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 9 | W |
| 02/08 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 01/07 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
1-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
Hartford Athletic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Indy Eleven USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 02/08 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 0 | 0 | D |
| 19/07 | Rhode Island FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 12/07 | Westchester SC USA USL Cup |
2-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 09/07 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 2-2 | 17 | 3 | D |
| 05/07 | Louisville City FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 21/06 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 07/06 | New York Cosmos USA USL Cup |
3-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs Hartford Athletic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (38%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 38%, draw 29%, Hartford Athletic 34%.
How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs Hartford Athletic?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Charlotte Independence 1.26 · Hartford Athletic 1.18), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs Hartford Athletic?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.