Football · USA USL Cup · 13/08, 01:00

Prediction: Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC

Team pages: Tampa Bay Rowdies · Louisville City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Tampa Bay Rowdies2.04

Louisville City FC1.34

1X2

52% 24% 23%

Tampa Bay Rowdies Draw Louisville City FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Tampa Bay Rowdies 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWLWDWWW

Louisville City FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWLWLD

Head-to-head

Tampa Bay Rowdies 3–3 Louisville City FC (6 last)

Tampa Bay Rowdies5-4Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC0-2Tampa Bay Rowdies
Louisville City FC2-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies1-2Louisville City FC
Louisville City FC2-1Tampa Bay Rowdies
Tampa Bay Rowdies3-2Louisville City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tampa Bay Rowdies 1561 · Louisville City FC 1513

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Draw	Louisville City FC
Our model	53%	23%	24%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tampa Bay Rowdies (rating 1561 vs 1513).
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Louisville City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/0/30%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	3.6 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:21 +10’	1.73	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tampa Bay Rowdies 3–0–3 Louisville City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	5-4 HT 0-3	Louisville City FC
31/05/26 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Tampa Bay Rowdies
08/06/25 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Tampa Bay Rowdies
20/04/25 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	1-2 HT 0-0	Louisville City FC
13/10/24 USA USL Championship	Louisville City FC	2-1 HT 0-0	Tampa Bay Rowdies
16/06/24 USA USL Championship	Tampa Bay Rowdies	3-2 HT 2-1	Louisville City FC

Standings · USA USL Cup · USL Cup 2026, Group 7

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#	Team	P	W	L	Pts
1	Tampa Bay Rowdies	4	4	0	12
2	Miami FC	4	3	1	9
3	Sporting JAX	3	1	2	4
4	Sarasota Paradise	4	1	3	3
5	FC Naples	3	0	3	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tampa Bay Rowdies	Louisville City FC
Lexington SC	1-4 L	4-2 W
Brooklyn FC	2-0 W	2-2 D
Hartford Athletic	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Louisville City FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Tampa Bay Rowdies

WDLWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Orange County SC USA USL Championship	1-0	3-0	1	5	W
02/08	Louisville City FC USA USL Championship	0-3	5-4	5	1	W
26/07	Miami FC USA USL Championship	2-1	3-2	3	10	W
19/07	Loudoun United FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	5	5	D
12/07	FC Naples USA USL Cup	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
05/07	Lexington SC USA USL Championship	0-3	1-4	12	3	L
21/06	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
14/06	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-1	0-1	15	2	L
11/06	Charleston Battery USA USL Championship	1-0	2-2	5	6	D
07/06	Sporting JAX USA USL Cup	2-0	2-0	4	4	W

Louisville City FC

DWDDWWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	San Antonio FC USA USL Championship	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
02/08	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Championship	3-0	4-5	2	1	L
30/07	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-1	10	7	W
18/07	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA USL Championship	0-0	1-3	7	4	L
12/07	Lexington SC USA USL Cup	2-2	4-2	3	6	W
05/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
20/06	Detroit City FC USA USL Cup	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
14/06	Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship	1-1	2-2	14	4	D
11/06	Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
04/06	Birmingham Legion FC USA USL Championship	1-1	1-1	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tampa Bay Rowdies win (52%). Probabilities: Tampa Bay Rowdies 52%, draw 24%, Louisville City FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Tampa Bay Rowdies 2.04 · Louisville City FC 1.34), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Louisville City FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.